Last week the California Redistricting Commission released their first draft of new Congressional, State Senate, State Assembly and Board of Equalization Districts. The lines that they have released have predictably caused a lot of chaos in California’s political community, with 157 directly impacted politicians all pouring over the maps, and trying to figure out whether they have “safe” seats, whether they need to physically move to stay in office, whether they have been thrown into a district with a colleague, or whether they have been drawn right out of a district altogether.

The purpose of this analysis is to specifically look at the impacts of these draft redistricting lines on the Congressional, Senate and Assembly seats that are completely or partially within Orange County. It is important to remember that these lines are drafts, and that the Commission will continue to take input that reserves the right to make small or large changes to them all the way until August 15th when they are required to adopt final lines. And even then there is every likelihood that the final lines will end up in front… Read More

I’ve done a fair amount of work in New Hampshire for conservative organizations, so I watched the debate last night at Saint Anselm College with considerable interest. Here’s my take on winners and losers.

The biggest loser was Barack Obama. The entire field presented itself as credible, articulate and capable. The range of cogent attacks on the Obama Administration serve as a great early-indicator of what next year’s General Election is going to look like. He’s vulnerable on the economy, jobs, federal spending, entitlements, energy independence, bailouts, immigration and so much more.

The second biggest loser was Sarah Palin. If Palin is actually looking at getting into the race (who knows?) her apparent strategy is to arrive late into a weak field and suck up all the energy in the race. However, the field last night showed that it is not weak, it is quite strong. We have businessmen, former Governors, former Senators and members of Congress past and present speaking forcefully, intelligently and candidly about why Barack Obama has failed the country.

Mitt Romney had a very good night. Romney entered the debate as the favorite, and nothing… Read More

Not long ago, I wrote about the somewhat remarkable conduct of the Assembly’s ruling Democrat majority in denying Republicans the right to caucus during floor deliberations. But incredibly, they topped that discourtesy just a few days later in a “debate” over the state budget. This time, Republicans were not denied just the right to meet among ourselves. Rather, we – and every one of the millions of constituents we represent – were denied the right even to participate in any meaningful way in the budget discussion.

No subject is of more importance and interest around the state right now than the California budget. Indeed, I would bet that, at least before Arnold’s latest scandal, no single topic has been more covered in the press than the budget. So you would expect that the Assembly’s very first full Budget Committee meeting after the May revisions showed $6.6 billion in unanticipated revenue and immediately before the June 15 constitutional deadline to pass a budget would be a very open and deliberative meeting with considerable, robust debate between the committee members. You would be wrong.

Shortly after the committee convened, right in the… Read More

From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail…

The California Shake-Up

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission released the first drafts of the new political maps on Friday, and the changes are immense. The commissioners, tasked with drawing districts that reflected common interests and sane geography rather than sheer partisan advantage, seem to have largely met those goals.

Californians can expect a greater number of competitive races under the plan. An analysis by the Sacramento Bee estimated that the number of true swing districts will increase to two from one in both Congress and the state Senate, and to five from two in the state Assembly. Still, that competitiveness comes largely at the expense of the GOP. Given the party’s continued decline in California — only 31% of voters are registered Republicans — the map necessarily gives a boost to Democrats. It does so, however, in a qualified manner. Some seats that used to be unflinchingly Democratic are now just marginally so.

Still, for the first time in decades Democrats have a… Read More

In his latest video production, Governor Jerry Brown says that he is “perplexed” as to why there are not four Republican votes to pass his proposed budget, which would include placing on the ballot the largest tax increase in California history. What Governor Brown casually mentions as “temporary extensions” of taxes represents every family in California making a four digit mandatory shift of money from their family budget over to the state’s budget. Brown fails to mention that the five years of “temporary extensions” that he proposes are in fact a renewal of taxes that were sold to Californian’s in 2009 as temporary themselves. It begs the question of what is the difference, really, between a permanent tax and a temporary tax that keeps getting extended? Brown fails to mention all together in his video that he is not only asking for Republicans to put up votes to advance the prospects of tax increases, but that he wants the legislature to also simply raise taxes for a year regardless of what the outcome of a special election might be.

One cannot blame Jerry… Read More

You just can’t satisfy those Dems. For years, they said “If we only got a majority vote on the budget, it would solve all the fiscal problems of the state.” I actually agreed with them. In tough budget years, the only way they could get a tax increase was because, in order to have a budget, some Republicans had to vote for it. Once they voted for the budget, which some felt compelled to do, voting for the taxes included in that budget was easy. Republican activists would beat them up for voting for a budget that “included” tax increases (even though a trailer bill would be necessary to actually enact the taxes), and Democrats would accuse them (rightly) of being hypocrites if they didn’t vote for the taxes. The pressure of being “responsible” (meaning the state had to have a budget), and the political hit for voting for the budget with taxes, made it easy to actually enact the taxes once the budget was passed.

That pressure is gone now. It will not be that big a deal in budget surplus years. The Dems will spend like drunken sailors in those days. But we are not there now. In tough years, Dems will have… Read More

It’s funny watching the Sunday political programs and the sheer frustration among the MSM that the GOP presidential field isn’t set. They are so accustomed to a certain field that they don’t know how to cover something this fluid.

Some of them dismissed the potential of a Texas Gov. Rick Perry candidacy because he “hasn’t done the things you need to do.” Well, in this nomination process, you don’t need to do what you need to do. Perry could wait another two months and if he picks his spots right, be a legitimate contender. He has a strong record in Texas on job creation and is a trusted conservative and if his message resonates and he positions himself credibly, donors and organization will develop around him.

The first binding process is still over six months away, even while numerous debates, straw polls, caucuses and assorted non-binding beauty contests occur. But the current field is so fluid that candidates can afford to skip a few and determine the best place to make their play.

To wit, both Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman have publicly declared that they will not participate in the Iowa Caucuses, historically a must for any… Read More

While you are doing whatever you do, patriot Congressman Dana Rohrabacher is fighting for liberty and freedom in Iraq. The senior member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, while leading a delegation of Members of Congress that Middle East country has openly questioned the involvement of the Iraqi government in the mass death of some Iranians, and also has suggested that maybe, when they are flush with cash ago (that oil keeps on pumping) that they might pay back the United States for some of the generosity our government has shown to theirs.

For his trouble — yeah, they kicked him out of the country.

I don’t know about you, but if that is how the Iraqi government is going to treat a U.S. Member of Congress, then I saw we oblige them in a big way — when don’t we just take all of our Americans and leave. We’re supposed to have all of our troops out of Iraq by year’s end – right now I’m inclined to say that the soldiers should be with their kids on Fathers Day.… Read More