Proposition 36 makes the very rational argument that criminals should be incarcerated for their crimes. When done timely and right, the arguments in favor of incarceration move even the most uninvolved voter to vote, and, when the arguments are framed correctly, those uninvolved voters turn out and vote Republican. That was the strength of three strikes.
When combined with Proposition 187, the “cut off government benefits to illegal aliens” initiative, the voters of California were faced with two very straight forward and powerful examples of the failures of the left. In 1994, crime was out of control, and the borders were unprotected. Voters had enough of the left’s vision for California, and they reacted, strongly, punishing the ruling Democrats, and delivering a majority to the Republicans in one house of the Legislature for the first time in 24 years.
2024 has the potential for making Republicans relevant again. Crime and illegal immigration are top on the minds of the voters of California. With Proposition 36 on the ballot, and an emphasis on illegal immigration in the legislative districts, Republican candidates have a mix of issues that can drive voters to them, if they do it right.
Democrats know this. Why do you think they dropped their opposition to Proposition 36? Voters don’t trust them on crime, and the campaign they would have to wage would have been, don’t trust the prosecutors and small businesses, trust us. I am not privy to their internal polling data, but I can assure you that argument was not only a loser, but a true disaster.
In 1994, when faced with the voter outrage over crime, and, quite frankly, the ability to kill the three strikes bill in committee, Speaker Willie Brown told his caucus to pass the bill. He famously stated “I am not going to stand in front of that train and yell ‘stop'” I am sure that when Governor Newsom saw the polling data, he understood Speaker Brown’s wisdom. The best political strategy for the Democrats in November was to suppress controversy. Just get out of the way. A fight over Proposition 36 would have given the Republicans a howitzer sized weapon to aim at Democrats in the Legislature. By going quiet, and giving conservatives this win, his hope is to minimize the political damage of the Democrats’ misguided approach to crime. “We’ll give them this” I am sure he thought, and “then we will do what we did with three strikes,” that is, use the Democrats’ political power in the Legislature to undermine the policy the voters want.
That is the key to the Republican strategy in 2024. The Republican message has to be, don’t just vote for Proposition 36, but give Republicans the power to implement the policy. Make sure California builds prisons, make sure California adequately reinforces the court and public safety system to implement the policy behind Proposition 36. Make sure the “vermin” that are controlling California’s urban streets are indeed fearful of the consequences of their behavior. Without more Republicans in the Legislature, the Republicans should argue, Proposition 36 will be like three strikes, simply pretty words on a page.
Republicans have a long way to go to recover in California, but this is a start. If candidates talk about giving Prop 36 real teeth in legislative policy, like building prisons to accommodate the “bad guys” on the street, voters will understand and be persuaded, for the first time in years, to vote Republican. Republicans just need to make the connection between the right policy and the right people to implement the policy. And those people are not Democrats, and never have been.