Today’s Field Poll shows significant improvement for Governor Schwarzenegger among independent voters, which matters a great deal. Now, to get that support the governor has had to make some calculated decisions that he knows will affect his support among conservatives. But what if 2006 plays out similar to 2003? Tom McClintock was on the ballot in 2003, driving many of the hard-core conservatives to go to the polls and vote YES on the recall question, which was crucial to Arnold Schwarzenegger’s victory. Could it be that elevating McClintock’s Lt. Governor race this go around will drive the necessary percentage of hard-core conservatives to the polls once again? There’s a lot of talk about not turning out in November, but who among conservatives wouldn’t turn out to vote for Senator McClintock? No one will punish the senator for the “sins” (I say that tongue-in-cheek) of the governor.

Go Tom!… Read More

Just came over the wire that Governor Schwarzenegger is putting National Guard on the border, and that he is claims authority over them. I think I’ll offer up a toast to the Governor tonight.… Read More

Down in OC 5th Supervisor District, gazillionaire Cassie DeYoung has spent nearly $2.5 million in her quest to become an Orange County Supervisor.

DeYoung is waging the nastiest political campaign OC has seen in a generation, and her target has been opponent Pat Bates, the former Assemblywoman (full disclosure: I’ve done some consulting work for Pat’s race).

DeYoung’s mail paints Pat of being a liberal illegal immigrant lover who gets teens hooked on smoking while destroying the ocean and our coastlines at the behest of the oil and gambling interests. I’m sure there are other smears I’ve missed, but you get to the point.

But suing Marian Bergeson? Isn’t that taking things just a tad too far? Tjis is from OC Register columnist Frank Mickadeit yesterday:

Marian Bergeson came up to me backstage at the Performing Arts Center during our last Follies… Read More

New Field Poll numbers will be reported tomorrow in the media. I’ve seen a few numbers already, but they’re embargoed until Friday.

I wouldn’t be giving anything away to say that the campaign between Phil Angelides and Steve Westly is uninspiring to Democratic voters, many who still haven’t made up their minds over the two candidatesafter an $80 million campaign. Money up in smoke. Neither candidate has a message and both resorted to negative ads. The latest against Westly is particularly brutal, in my opinion. It reminds me of a five year old little boy hugging Mickey Mouse for the first time at Disneyland. You’ll have to see it to understand. Bill Bradley’s blog at NewWestNotes.com has a link. (scroll down to yesterday’s posts)

For a little context on what you’re going to see tomorrow, here are some numbers from Feb. 27, 2002 in the primary race between Bill Simon, Dick Riordan and Bill Jones. The Field Poll indicated 23% of voters undecided a week before the primary. The numbers at that time were as follows:

Simon 37% Riordan 31% Jones 9% Undecided… Read More

There are several intense races going on here in Orange County, but I’d like to focus on one in particular: the 2nd Supervisorial District.

It’s a match-up between OC Treasurer John Moorlach and Stanton City Councilman Dave Shawver.

Some quick background. Moorlach originally ran — and lost –a race against the incumbent OC Treasurer in 1994, warning that the incumbent’s risky investment strategies were going to push Orange County into bankruptcy. The usual suspects denounced Moorlach as an alarmist and dismissed him. We all know what happened next.

After the county went bankrupt, the chastened Board of Supes appointed John to the vacated Treasurer’s spot.

Fast forward 12 years. Incumbent OC Supervisor Jim Silva is termed out and running for Assembly. John Moorlach is running to succeed him, and warning that the recent round of county employee pension spiking places county finances at serious risk.

The local government employee unions are apoplectic at the prospect of Moorlach on the Board of Supervisors.… Read More

The Oakland Unified School District board voted yesterday to ignore state law and grant diplomas to students who did not pass the state’s high school exit exam. It was a cheap political move by the board’s part because they know that State Administrator Randall Ward is unlikely to support the decision. Without Ward’s signoff, the vote was symbolic, allowing the board to placate the people who complain that the exit exam is unfair.

Dan Siegel, the board member who proposed the resolution, said that it is "very unfair to say to students who, for 13 years, have done what we have asked them to do, ‘You can’t graduate.’"

Clearly, the Oakland schools, as run by… Read More

Senator Gil Cedillo’s bill to legalize drivers licenses for illegal immigrants just passed on the floor of the California State Senate. Having passed the hurdles of one house, it now heads to the Assembly before landing on Gov. Schwarzenegger’s desk for signature.

Following is text that comes directly from the Senate Floor Analysis of Senate Bill 1160. Feel free to read for yourself the language and full analysis of the bill. http://info.sen.ca.gov/cgi-bin/postquery?bill_number=sb_1160&sess=CUR&house=B&site=sen

It’s worth comparing/contrasting all the requirements for “Evidence of Lawful Status” vs. “Licenses for Undocumented Persons.” I just don’t understand the logic of making it easier for lawbreakers to comply with the law. For instance, if an immigrant is in the U.S. seeking asylum, why must that person go through the hurdles of proving their status when someone who crossed the border illegally can simply claim "undocumented" status and get a license?

Ladies and… Read More

Danny Ramirez may be the least known Democrat in the CD 51 Filner-Vargas brouhaha, but he may also be working for Filner.

Thanks to John Dadian for sending this along fromthe Capitol Morning Report:

Danny Ramirez, a Democrat running in the 51st CD, has announced filing a criminal complaint with the DAs in Imperial and San Diego counties and with the AG’s office against his opponent Asm. Juan Vargas and Vargas’ “campaign staff man” George Bresnahan. Ramirez says Vargas and Bresnahan violated CA Election Code 18205 by offering him “valuable consideration” in exchange for running in the 80th AD instead of the 51st CD. According to Ramirez, he and Bresnahan are acquaintances from church and Bresnahan visited his home on the evening of March 7. Ramirez recalls Bresnahan saying explicitly that he’d been “sent by Juan Vargas to make an offer or deal with me in regard to not becoming a candidate for the 51st CD.” The approach made Ramirez “uncomfortable,” he says, “so I promptly got a witness.” Ramirez remembers Bresnahan saying to him, “Danny, both you and Juan Vargas have Hispanic names, so you know what will… Read More