When handicapping legislative campaigns seven weeks out there are several factors to consider. You look at how well a candidate is known in the community (name id), resources available to the campaign (fundraising and volunteers), where the candidates stand on issues important to the district.

In Assembly District 29, currently held by Mike Villines, we have three Republican candidates that would all claim to be the leading candidates in the race. Of those three Dr. Linda Halderman has everything breaking her way right now.

Halderman is a surgeon that spent most of her career treating breast cancer patients. This makes for a compelling story that she has told on local conservative radio station KMJ dozens of times over the past few years. She has some name ID and a compelling and memorable story to tell.

Halderman entered this race in late January and started behind the two other candidates that have been running for much longer. At the last report she had been running for six weeks and raised… Read More

Striking Capistrano Unified School District teachers were ballyhooing today in south Orange County during my drive to Trader Joe’s this afternoon to pick up some chow for Ibo, our real German, German Shepherd.

The strikers looked neighborly enough, almost like a mall crowd, mostly changed into "smart casual" outfits after school for their afternoon of demonstrating. I got to thinking, and contacted Tony Beall, the Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman who has been defending the CUSD "reform" trustees in the labor dispute that pits a school administration that absolutely must control excessive spending and a teacher’s union that will not easily accept that their salaries need to be cut to do so.

Anyway, Tony provided me some URLs leading me to some data I was interested in seeing. I am not a statistician, but what I learned all on my own is that last year, around half of the teachers at CUSD made salaries of $82,245 or more. Since salaries start at around $48,000, and go to a little under $100,000, the labor problem at CUSD seemed pretty evident to me: the district is top-heavy with high salaried teachers. One… Read More

We all knowJon is not one to toot his own horn, I thought I would take a moment as a member of the FlashReport team to congratulate him on his being named by Capitol Weekly as the 49th most influential person in the State Capitol (elected officials were excluded from the list). Few people made the list who are actually committed to shrinking the size and scope of state government. And even fewer managed to make the list who live and work over 500 miles from Sacramento!

Capitol Weekly annually puts out their list of the 100 power-brokers in Capitol policy and politics. If I recall, last year Jon was somewhere in the bottom 50, so he’s actually moving up in influence, according to CapWeekly. I might question their judgment, but Anthony York didn’t call me.

Congratulations, Jon, on well deserved recognition. I am sure you realize that this would not have been possible without your fellow FlashReport contributors, and as such we’ll all be expecting a piece of that cash prize (assuming the FPPC doesn’t ban bloggers from receiving… Read More

For principled conservatives out there who is scratching their heads, wondering why Republicans en masse in the State Assembly (Chuck DeVore’s opposing vote noted) provided votes to put someone as terrible as Abel Maldonado in the Lt. Governor’s office (his confirmation will now be taken up in the State Senate where it is very likely to pass), I want to share an e-mail I received to provide some perspective.

Let me preface the reprinting of this e-mail by first saying that the "political" argument of approving Maldonado so that Republicans could have the best possible chance of holding the seat as economically as possible in a smaller-turnout special election is no longer viable. While it is, of course, possible for the special election to be held on its own, the timing of this confirmation permits Governor Schwarzenegger to consolidate it with the November General election, saving big bucks for taxpayers. But that means that for the GOP to retain that seat, it will be very, very costly. And in a world of limited resources, the money to fight for that seat comes at the expense of resources to battle… Read More

FR sources forwarded along a memo that was produced by Marty Wilson of the Fiorina for U.S. Senate Campaign. As usual, we pass such things along to you for your review… April 22, 2010 MEMORANDUM TO: Interested Parties FR: Martin Wilson Campaign Manager, Carly for California RE: State of the Race… Read More

Ask 1000 random Californians of all political stripes to list what they believe should be the state’s spending priorities, and you’ll probably see education, public safety and transportation at the top of almost every list. After that, priorities will vary depending on the individual’s point of view.

What you won’t see on anyone’s list is taxpayer financing of political campaigns, yet that’s just what Prop 15 on the June ballot would do. With a mammoth budget deficit, taxes going up, a crumbling infrastructure, and a host of assorted problems facing California, it’s not surprising that voters can think of plenty of things to spend their money on besides junk mail and negative TV ads.

Four years ago, 74 percent of voters said NO to Prop 89, a plan to tax businesses to finance political campaigns. In 2000, when the state was flush with tax revenue from the dot-com boom, two-thirds of voters rejected another public campaign financing scheme, Proposition 25.

**There is more – click the link**… Read More

Ask 1000 random Californians of all political stripes to list what they believe should be the state’s spending priorities, and you’ll probably see education, public safety and transportation at the top of almost every list. After that, priorities will vary depending on the individual’s point of view.

What you won’t see on anyone’s list is taxpayer financing of political campaigns, yet that’s just what Prop 15 on the June ballot would do. With a mammoth budget deficit, taxes going up, a crumbling infrastructure, and a host of assorted problems facing California, it’s not surprising that voters can think of plenty of things to spend their money on besides junk mail and negative TV ads.

Four years ago, 74 percent of voters said NO to Prop 89, a plan to tax businesses to finance political campaigns. In 2000, when the state was flush with tax revenue from the dot-com boom, two-thirds of voters rejected another public campaign financing scheme, Proposition 25.

Here we go again with Proposition 15. The California Nurses Association and other members of the spending lobby will ask voters for the third time in ten years to repeal the same… Read More

This just out from the Meg Whitman for Governor campaign… We’ll be looking with interest to tomorrow’s Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research survey results, which is the next survey taking place that isn’t sponsored by a candidate…

April 21, 2010 To: Meg Whitman for Governor From: John McLaughlin Re: Survey Analysis Date: April 21, 2010 … Read More