With the final count on the Garcia/Clute election, I expect to see and hear the same laments that I have heard from the media (and a lot of my Republican friends) about how the redistricting of 2001 froze the outcomes of California’s elections.

Of course, that is not true (just ask Richard Pombo).  There is no question that the redistricting was a status quo effort (the Dems were supposed to end up with 50 Assemblymembers, 26 Senators, and 33 Members of Congress, with the Reps getting the rest), it didn’t end up that way.  Reps have picked up 2 Assembly seats, one Senate seat (with a very close election for a second), and the Dems have picked up one Congressional seat, and gave the Reps a run for their money on two others.  Nothing is written in stone in politics, and there is no excuse for not fighting to pick up seats in any election.

Too often, the redistricting plan is used as an excuse for laziness in politics.  "We can’t pick up seats," we are told by the political operatives, "so don’t blame us if we don’t."  The fact is four state legislatures in the 1990’s went Republican after a Democrat gerrymander, states with histories remarkably similar to California.  Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida all went Republican in the 1990’s after Democrat gerrymanders  (Texas was gerrymandered by Democrats as well, but didn’t go 100% Republican until 2002).  Legislative Leaders in those states didn’t take the gerrymanders as a death sentence, and started working for a majority, district by district, two years at a time.

Unfortunately, we in California have believed that elections are won with lots of money spent in the last six weeks of a campaign (and very little else).  As a result, we wait for national tsunamis to sweep us in to power, or suffer the slow erosion of our seats in years where Republicans are on the wrong side of the ebbs and flows of politics.

There is a better way, but it starts now.

Here is an example.  Two years ago, everyone in the Legislature knew that Barbara Matthews (AD 17) would be termed out this year, and that, as a district in transition, there was a strong possibility that Republicans could pick that seat up in this election.  Whereupon, we did nothing to increase the Republican infrastructure, the registration, or the quality of candidates in that district.  As a result, we lost.

We know that AD 30 is a solid chance for a pick up in two years.  Now is that time to develop the winning strategy for that district.  Waiting until September, 2008, and then spending $2 million to take the seat, without anything else, is the prescription for another status quo election, and a series of articles where we whine about the redistricting plan.

The new plan will take real work, by politicians, activists, and the party.  Hard work.  Maybe that will be too much too ask.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 22nd, 2006 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.