A good independent expenditure thoroughly understands the ongoing campaign dynamic. Otherwise, its just simply adding election noise which voters ignore.
In this year’s California primary election, independent expenditure committees spent $475,000 to support Republican Anna Bryson in California’s 73rd Assembly District. Bryson’s own campaign added another $150,000 on top of that.
In March, I was retained to help Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough – one of three other Republicans running for the 73rd. From that point forward, I had approximately $35,000 to spend on voter-contact and help Brough attain a top-two result.
That’s $625,000 for Bryson. $35,000 for Brough.
The result? Brough finished first among Republicans with 16,365 votes, winning 27.7% and earning a position in the November runoff. The Democrat candidate took the other November slot, finishing at 27.8%.
As for Anna Bryson, she earned just 6,549 votes, finishing DEAD LAST.
To put this in context, consider that the Bryson effort spent around $95 per vote. In my voter-contact for Bill Brough, we spent just over $2 for per vote. We were outspent by over 40 to 1 on “per-vote spending.”
Of course, Bill Brough is a formidable candidate. He has a strong business and government background and an even stronger ground game under the leadership of Orange County campaign expert Jennifer Beall.
But Anna Bryson has strong accomplishments too, including her work for greater efficiencies and cost savings while on the San Juan Capistrano Unified School Board. Bryson also had endorsements from dozens of Orange County’s top GOP leaders.
However, neither the Bryson campaign nor the independent effort developed a “sticky” message. The $250,000 in pro-Bryson independent cable television seemed disconnected from the dynamics of the race and featured generic messaging that grossly failed to earn voters’ support. The independent mail was more of the same.
By contrast, and by necessity, the 2 pieces of Brough mail (yes, just 2 mailings) and the oversized Brough doorhanger were all synchronized and focused with specific action items that spoke directly to the GOP primary voter.
Brough was the candidate who would “oppose any attempt to weaken Prop 13’s property tax protections.” He would also “hold legislators accountable: no balanced budget = no paycheck,” and he would “suspend job-killing regulations until the unemployment rate drops below 4%.”
We also staggered Brough’s mail rollout for maximum efficiency. Our first mail piece hit in 3 waves: early-voting absentees, late-voting absentees, and then election-day voters. Our second piece hit late absentees and then election-day voters. Every communication was tightly focused and targeted to squeeze effectiveness from each dollar spent.
The good news is, Bill Brough will be heading to the Legislature. With his business and government background, he’ll be an instant impact player.
The bad news is that independent efforts to help Republicans in June looked largely ineffective and off-target. Let’s hope this isn’t a trend that continues through November, where it can mean the difference between electing a Republican or a Democrat.
Tim Clark is a 20-year veteran of strategic communications and political strategy. He has consistently won races throughout California, including compiling a 75% win rate for his candidates in the recent June primary election. Clark was named a national rising star by Campaigns and Elections Magazine shortly before managing Steve Poizner’s successful campaign for Insurance Commissioner – one of just two Republicans to win California statewide office in the last 16 years. Clark’s firm, Clark Strategy Group, is also a multiple recipient of the American Association of Political Consultants Pollie Award for campaign excellence.