Have you ever gone to see a movie based on a book you’ve read, and found that the two have less in common than you thought? It’s the same with some of the reporting about the latest PPIC poll, especially as it relates to the governor’s race.
One news story described the race as “a one man show,” citing Brown’s “37 percentage-point edge over his nearest rival…” You get the point. Game over, right?
Not so much.
There are not one, but two elections at play here: the June election, and the November runoff. The dynamics will change radically between the first and the second, and much of the reporting misses this critical fact.
Incumbent Gov. Jerry Brown currently leads in the PPIC poll by that 37%. For all practical purposes, in the June election, which right now is the only one that counts, this number is absolutely, totally meaningless. Everyone knows Brown will place first in the new “top two” primary. It’s the top two finishers who both go on to the runoff, not the top one finisher.
The competition is not for the top slot, it’s for the second.
Here we see an 8-point gap between Republican Assemblyman Tim Donnelly and Republican former Bush Treasury official Neel Kashkari. For Donnelly, who has been campaigning for a year, his lead is statistically significant, meaning it is outside of the margin of error. Kashkari, in the race for two months, has more funds available to try to close it. Time is running out, as mail voters begin receiving ballots in six weeks. Where it ends up depends on the campaign each man wages.
The PPIC found that a whopping 36% of voters are undecided. History shows most of these votes will not go to Brown, who is already well known. The big undecided number is the result of voters skeptical of Brown who have not yet decided which of his rivals to support.
As voter contact begins in the month of April, the undecided voters will make up their minds, most of them will choose a Brown rival, and each rival’s numbers will rise above where they are now. Brown’s won’t change much.
After June 3rd, the game changes completely. Whichever Republican emerges as Brown’s challenger in November will receive a further boost in the weeks following the primary as a result of earned media alone. By November, voters will know both Brown and his rival almost equally.
The head to head matchups in today’s polling mean little because the circumstances will change so drastically between now and November. It’s a long ballgame.
Further, there are two major causes for concern for Brown. First, despite being universally known, only 47% of Californians would vote today to re-elect him. It is conventional wisdom, and properly so, that any incumbent polling under 50% should be worried. The reason is that the incumbent is already known, voters have an opinion of him, and it’s not likely to improve much.
Additionally, PPIC found that only 41% of Californians believe the state – with the highest poverty rate in the nation, its fourth highest unemployment, and a million Obamacare cancellations – is moving in the right direction. Any re-election campaign is a referendum on the incumbent, and right now Jerry Brown is not winning that referendum. His approval rating is down too. Voters are open to alternatives.
Obviously, every Republican running statewide is an underdog, including me. We know that. But when the votes are counted in November, the results will be far closer than the polling today. There may even be a few surprises.
Ron Nehring is a past Chairman of the California Republican Party and a Republican candidate for Lt. Governor. To learn more, visit his website at www.RonNehring.com.