Last week the California Redistricting Commission released their first draft of new Congressional, State Senate, State Assembly and Board of Equalization Districts.  The lines that they have released have predictably caused a lot of chaos in California’s political community, with 157 directly impacted politicians all pouring over the maps, and trying to figure out whether they have “safe” seats, whether they need to physically move to stay in office, whether they have been thrown into a district with a colleague, or whether they have been drawn right out of a district altogether.

The purpose of this analysis is to specifically look at the impacts of these draft redistricting lines on the Congressional, Senate and Assembly seats that are completely or partially within Orange County.  It is important to remember that these lines are drafts, and that the Commission will continue to take input that reserves the right to make small or large changes to them all the way until August 15th when they are required to adopt final lines.  And even then there is every likelihood that the final lines will end up in front of a judge for review due to legal challenges.

And now, onto the analysis…  To make it easier for those reading this, I have hyperlinked each district to the appropriate map, uploaded to the Meridian Pacific Maps website, a useful resource (h/t to Matt Rexroad).  Note: Five letter labels are used to identify districts — they were assigned by the commission and I have included them for clarity.

Congressional Districts
Under the new lines, the County will be represented by five Members of Congress — four districts completely within its boundaries, and one district at the southern end that goes well into Camp Pendleton and beyond in northern San Diego County.  Four of the districts are Republican, and one leans Democrat, but could be competitive under certain circumstances.

North Orange County (LHBYL) MAP

This safe Republican seat in the Northernmost part of the county is currently represented largely by Ed Royce and a small portion by Gary Miller.  With Royce deciding to run for a safe seat just to the South, this could be a district where Gary Miller, whose Los Angeles County-based seat is a victim of redistricting, decides to move and try to extend his stay in Congress.  Unfortunately for Miller, popular Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson has apparently confirmed that he is running for this now-open seat..  Nelson’s 4th District, where he has run twice in the last year, is completely within this district, making him a formidable candidate.  Conveniently for Nelson he does not have to give up his Supervisorial seat to run.  If this ends up a Miller vs. Nelson race, I would give the edge to Nelson.

Inland Orange County (STHOC)  MAP
The largest city in Ed Royce’s current House seat is Orange, which is completely within this conservative safe GOP seat that extends all of the way South to Mission Viejo and Rancho Santa Margarita.  Ed Royce has made it clear that if the lines hold, this is where he will run.  Being one of the most tenacious campaigners in Congress, and sitting on the largest war chest of any California Republican, Ed Royce will walk into this seat.  Gary Miller, who represents some of the Southern end, need not apply.

Coastal Orange County (OCCST)  MAP
Under these lines, two incumbent conservative Congressmen, Dana Rohrabacher and John Campbell, are both drawn into this new district which contains the heart of both of their existing districts.  Rohrabacher hails from the Huntington Beach/Costa Mesa area, and Campbell has represented the large cities of Irvine and Newport Beach since his election to Congress (although Rohrabacher represented half of Newport Beach before the last redistricting).  Rohrabacher, a former speechwriter for President Reagan, has a compelling story to tell voters in this coastal district, but the question is whether he will have the financial resources to do so.  He’ll start behind the 8 ball with around 100k cash-on-hand while Campbell, who is quite affluent in his own right, will report over a million dollars in his account.  Campbell’s vote for the TARP bill will be a vulnerability among Republican voters as will Rohrabacher’s support for earmarking – but remember we now have a jungle ballot, no longer a closed GOP primary.

Central Orange County (WESTG) MAP
Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez sees big changes to her former district.  While her home town of Santa Ana is in this seat, the heavily Hispanic portions of Anaheim and Fullerton have been draw out of it.  The seat now reaches further north and west, taking in much of the county’s Asian population, and significantly narrowing the voter registration here, to the point where it is a much more competitive seat.  There are some that are trying to convince Dana Rohrabacher to shift over to this seat, and take on Sanchez.  If Rohrabacher does so, it will be a formidable, high profile, and expensive race. The GOP candidate in 2010, former Assemblyman Van Tran, would certainly be a potential candidate.  If Rohrabacher and Tran take passes, this seat likely stay in Democrat hands in 2012, a Presidential year, but may be quite vulnerable in 2014.  Supervisor Janet Nguyen takes a pass on this seat, for now, and seeks re-election.

South Orange County/North San Diego County (CSTSN)  MAP

In the last redistricting, Darrell Issa saw his district drawn out of Orange County.  With these new lines, Issa will return to representing the Southernmost cities, all the way up to Laguna Niguel.  The new district in which Issa would run contains some territory currently represented by fellow San Diego delegation member Brian Bilbray, who will run in a much more competitive seat to the South.  Lest we forget, the high profile Issa, Chairman of the House Oversight Committee, is also one of the wealthiest members of Congress with a personal fortune measured in hundreds of millions of dollars.  This will be Issa’s seat for the next decade, unless he decides otherwise.

State Senate Districts
Orange County will be represented by four State Senate Districts.  Only one those seats is completely within the county, one takes in a small piece Los Angeles County, another is split between Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties, and the other is mostly in San Diego County.  One of these seats is competitive, and the others are all safe territory for the GOP.  It is significant to remember that with State Senate seats, which are up only every four years, there is a significant outstanding question as to the numbering of districts.  This is important because if a seat is given an odd number, then an election will be held there in 2012.  But if a seat has an even number, the vote for that seat would not take place until 2014.  The Commission has said that they do not intend on “numbering” the districts until they approve the final lines in August.

North Orange County (DBYLA) MAP
Bob Huff probably could not have drawn a better seat for himself if he has been given the redistricting pen himself.  Though this safe GOP district has more of Orange County than his existing district, Huff will be safely re-elected in this seat.  The only drama here will be the numbering of the seat.

Central Orange County (WSTAN) MAP

Termed-out Democrat Lou Correa will continue to represent this seat, which has been made more competitive under the new lines.  Looking to run for this seat, on the Democrat side, is another termed out legislator, Democrat Assemblyman Jose Solorio, who would undoubtedly like to see this seat given an even number and thus be up in 2012.  It is likely that you will not see Republican names start to surface for this seat until the numbering takes place, and then only if it will be up next year.  This district does take in a small part of Los Angeles County (Artesia and part of Cerritos).

South Orange County/Northern San Diego County (SANOC) MAP
Two longtime GOP State Senators have had their homes drawn into this safe GOP seat that runs along the coast from South Orange County, through Camp Pendleton, to just north of Del Mar.  Senator Mark Wyland was just re-elected to his second four year term, in an existing Senate seat that makes up most of this new seat.  Wyland has announced his intention to seek the Board of Equalization seat in 2014.  Mimi Walters’ Laguna Niguel home is also in this seat.  Walters, who was elected to the Senate in 2008, is seriously looking at moving her registration to a second family home that is along the coast, in the neighboring Coastal Orange County seat with no incumbent.  It’s all in the numbering — if this seat is up in 2014, look for Walters to move.  If the seat is up in 2012, she likely runs for this seat but will face as her potential challenger, from San Diego County, in termed-out Assemblyman Martin Garrick.

Coastal Orange County (CSTIV)  MAP

Assemblyman Jim Silva has been running for the open seat created by the pending retirement of Senator Tom Harman for some time now, and has amassed a war chest and stable of endorsements that run deep in the Northern part of this district which overlaps some of his current Assembly seat.   That said, this district has been draw further South (down to Dana Point) and Inland (Irvine, Orange, Tustin).  Enter Senator Mimi Walters.  Walters currently represents some of that Inland portion of this district, but does not reside in it — yet.  She has made it clear within the political community that if the South County seat into which she was draw gets an even number and if this seat gets an odd one, rather than sit it out of the Senate for two years, she likely moves here.  Walters has a reputation for being a strong fund raiser, and has the ability to put in a significant amount of personal funds if needed.  She would be formidable.  There have been persistent rumors that Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach is considering a potential run as well.

State Assembly Seats
Orange County’s Assembly Delegation will be comprised of seven legislators — six Republicans and one Democrat. Five seats are completely within the county’s boundaries, and two seats reach over — one into Los Angeles County, the other into Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties.

Brea/Yorba Linda/Chino Hills (DBRYL) MAP

Curt Hagman will run for re-election in this safe GOP seat, which is very similar to the one he occupies now.

North Orange County (ANAFL) MAP
Another non-controversial seat — Chris Norby will easily walk into this safe Republican seat which overlaps much of his current one.

Central Orange County (SNANA)  MAP
While this seat has shifted from being primarily a Santa Ana/Anaheim seat to now being a Santa Ana/Orange seat, it still remains Orange County’s single safe Democrat seat.  Incumbent Jose Solorio is forced out this year due to term limits.  The two Democrats that are the early front-runners to succeed him are Julio Perez, Political Director of the Orange County Labor Federation and Santa Ana Councilman Vince Sarmiento.  Look for their contest to heat up pretty quickly.

Northwest Orange County (WESTC) MAP
Allan Mansoor has represented the lion’s share of this blue collar Republican district for the last two years.  That said, his actual apartment was gerrymandered out of this seat.  If you presume that he ultimately runs for this seat, he will clear the GOP field and easy win re-election to a second term.

Coastal Orange County (CSTOC) MAP

Former California Republican Party Treasurer and attorney Keith Carlson has long been running for this safe GOP seat, with the blessing of many, including its termed-out incumbent Jim Silva (who is running for the State Senate).  Carlson is on track to have easily eclipsed the six-figure mark on his fundraising, an impressive achievement this far out.  A sticky widget here is that Alan Mansoor’s hometown of Costa Mesa, on this draft, is drawn into this district — even thought the vast majority of Mansoor’s constituents are in the neighboring GOP-safe “open” 68th district.  While the presumption and conventional wisdom is that Mansoor will move, he has made early indications that this is not his preference, which could queue up a lively, and costly showdown.  Also rumored to be eying runs for this seat are newly elected Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle.

Inland Orange County (TUSTO) MAP
While certainly dismayed to be losing Newport Beach, Don Wagner has to be pleased as punch at the safe GOP district in which he will run for reelection.  He is likely to be unopposed in this Tustin/Irvine/Orange based seat.

South Orange County (STHOC) MAP
Diane Harkey has stated publicly that unless the lines are changes, she will move to this safe GOP district from her home that was drawn into the Coastal Orange County seat.  The Southern end of the county is familiar territory to Harkey who would undoubtedly hold onto this seat.  Harkey has announced that she is seeking the Board of Equalization seat in 2014.

I will conclude this analysis by reiterating that these lines are not final — not by any means.  The Commission will adopt final lines mid-August, and then we need to tell with the impacts of court challenges.  It is also significant to note the the Orange County Board of Supervisors will soon be addressing redistricting as well, though I understand that they may wait bit, to see what happens with the federal and state legislative lines.  As always, if you have input on these seats, feel free to comment below or drop me an e-mail.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 15th, 2011 at 8:55 am and is filed under Blog Posts.