From today’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary E-mail…

The California Shake-Up

The California Citizens Redistricting Commission released the first drafts of the new political maps on Friday, and the changes are immense. The commissioners, tasked with drawing districts that reflected common interests and sane geography rather than sheer partisan advantage, seem to have largely met those goals.

Californians can expect a greater number of competitive races under the plan. An analysis by the Sacramento Bee estimated that the number of true swing districts will increase to two from one in both Congress and the state Senate, and to five from two in the state Assembly. Still, that competitiveness comes largely at the expense of the GOP. Given the party’s continued decline in California — only 31% of voters are registered Republicans — the map necessarily gives a boost to Democrats. It does so, however, in a qualified manner. Some seats that used to be unflinchingly Democratic are now just marginally so.

Still, for the first time in decades Democrats have a mathematical possibility of reaching a two-thirds supermajority in each legislative chamber, which would allow them to raise taxes without Republican consent. That gives the GOP little electoral margin for error. Then again, the prospect of having to face competitive elections might induce a move toward the center in both parties.

But while partisan makeup will mostly shift at the margins, the faces are sure to change. About a dozen congressional districts could be vacant and a dozen others could have multiple incumbents (a proposed Fresno-area seat has three). Thus, some incumbents will have to choose: retire, move or face another sitting congressman. Democratic Rep. Howard Berman, whose brother drew the 2000 maps, is among those getting squeezed. He can either run against fellow Democrat Brad Sherman or vie for a vacant seat in a heavily Hispanic district. Others, like Republican Rep. David Dreier, might see their districts evaporate before their eyes.

Besides individual legislators, those most upset at the plan were Latino groups. The Hispanic population has increased by 28% since the last census, but there doesn’t look to be an accompanying spike in political power. Arturo Vargas of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials called it a “worst case scenario” on Twitter. Perhaps the most quizzical example is a Los Angeles congressional seat that links Hispanic portions of south L.A. to wealthy west-L.A. enclaves like Beverly Hills.

Still, given the complexity of the nation’s largest state, the commission mostly drew districts that made sense. They will release a second draft in early July, with a final revision due in mid-August.

— Carl J. Kelm

This entry was posted on Monday, June 13th, 2011 at 10:27 am and is filed under Blog Posts.