I realize I am not the smartest political strategist around, but I have a question?  Why, in a year where conservative issues are transcendant, conservative activists are energized, and conservative voters just can’t wait to vote, would a candidate run around the state trying to prove she is not a conservative?  Do you think there is a reason why Meg Whitman seems to be falling apart, and Carly Fiorina is on the rise?  Wouldn’t it be an interesting commentary on the "traditional" wisdom of the political intelligentsia in California if the conservative Fiorina won, and the "moderate" Whitman lost?

I want to make sure I am not misunderstood.  I don’t want Whitman to lose.  I have already voted, and I voted for her.  But, to be honest, I was in the voting booth, and thought twice about it.  And trust me, if I thought twice about it, there are a lot of conservatives who will just walk away.  In fact, it is my opinion that Whitman can still win this, but it will be because conservatives like Fiorina and Senator Mimi Walters are in the race, so conservatives will turn out to vote for them, and then just hold their nose and vote for Whitman.  There will also be a conservative wave that hits back East, and it will be clear by 5 or 6 pm that Republicans will win Congress.  Democrats here in California will simply not show up to the polls after that, causing about a 10 to 15 percent drop off in turn out.  It happened in 1980 and in 1994.  It may be more severe this time.

I understand that it is difficult for a Republican to win in California.  There are two reasons for that phenomenon: (1) There aren’t enough Republicans registered in California, and (2) Republican officeholders tend to follow the "traditional" wisdom that they have to be moderate to win statewide.  Interestingly enough, moderates, like Tom Campbell, get about 39% of the vote, every time.  Conservatives, like Tom McClintock, get 49% of the vote.  Go figure.

Why is that?  Most people don’t think there is a dime’s worth of difference between the parties, but they listen to the candidates.  A candidate that sounds different than the party wins, and since most people think that the parties are the Democans and Republicrats, someone that doesn’t sound like a Democrat actually gets voters intrigued.  How do you separate yourself from the Republican party in the minds of the independent voters?  Sound like a conservative, that’s how.  That is why Fiorina is moving up in the polls, and Whitman is moving down.

Jerry Brown is a joke.  He should have been put away long ago.  The Whitman strategy, however, is defective.  Why distance yourself from conservatives on illegal immigration and Proposition 23?  It was foolish.  It was a strategy of contempt for conservatives, and conservatives know it.  Why would you hold a key Republican constituency in contempt, and then expect them to vote for you?  Particularly in a year when conservative issues are predominant.  It makes no sense.

Once again, I hope Whitman wins, but like I said before, this race was Whitman’s to lose, and she is doing everything in her power to lose it.  Let’s hope Fiorina, Walters and the other statewide conservatives pull it out for her.

This entry was posted on Sunday, October 24th, 2010 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.