Thanks to California’s infamously gerrymandered legislative districts the vast majority of seats 
are “pre-ordained” to be either Republican or Democrat. Only in a few districts is the registration close enough that a seat is “in play” in the general election. One of those is State Senate District 16 in the Central Valley.
This seat is currently occupied by term-limited Democrat Dean Florez, who has mentored Democrat Kern County Supervisor Michael Rubio (pictured, right) to succeed him. The Democrat “machine” in the southern part of the valley is so lock-step behind Rubio that he had no primary opponent whatsoever.
On the Republican side of the ballot, rancher and realtor Tim Theisen (pictured, left) won a narrow primary victory on June 8th and promises to be a strong candidate in the fall. Theisen, a popular conservative with long roots in the district, and his primary opponent together totaled up votes very close to what Rubio achieved (the delta was less than a couple thousand votes).
This seat is a top target for a Republican pickup. Theisen’s consultant, Wayne Johnson, is no lightweight – considered by politicos on both sides of the aisle to be one of the most capable political consultants in Sacramento.
With the table set now for a donnybrook this Fall, I have received credible information that may very well leave the Democrats with no candidate against Theisen at all! It would appear that 
Supervisor Rubio does not live in, nor is he registered to vote in the 16th State Senate District. Let me make it clear before I go on, this isn’t one of those situations where the candidate has a home outside of the district, but is registered to vote at an apartment or at the home of family or a friend in the district. I mean that the actual home owned by Rubio, at which he is registered to vote, is literally a couple of hundred feet inside of the neighboring 18th Senate District, where Republican Assemblywoman Jean Fuller is running unopposed to succeed Senator Roy Ashburn, who is retiring due to term limits.
First and foremost, there is no dispute about Rubio’s home address, at which he is registered to vote: 320 Quincy Street in Bakersfield (graphics: Google Maps photo of home, Kern County Voter Registrar file).
So the question is simple – in what State Senate district is 320 Quincy Street?
Well, to start with, if you go to the California State Senate website, and type in 320 Quincy to “find my Senator” – Roy Ashburn’s name comes up (see graphic to left).
If you go to the venerable Project Vote Smart website, and type in 320 Quincy – they have that address in the 18th District.
So let’s get even more into the nitty gritty. Kern County has a great GIS/Online mapping system that allows you to zoom in on any parcel of land in the county, and overlay political boundaries. Guess what happens when you key in Rubio’s Quincy Street address? You pull up a map that clearly shows his parcel, and the boundary between the 16th and 18th Districts tantalizingly close, 
but Rubio’s home is definitely on the 18th District side. (Graphic: snip of Kern GIS search).
Finally, one can go to what is considered to be the “bible” for determination of district information – the Statewide Database (maintained at U.C. Berkeley, where Census data is overlaid against the redistricting maps and every parcel can be located). Guess what the 
Statewide Database says? You guessed it – 320 Quincy is in the 18th District (if you look at the graphic, the green linee separates the 16th and 18th Senate Districts, 18th on the left side).
Based on all of this data, it seems irrefutable that Michael Rubio is, in fact, running for a State Senate seat in which he does not reside. That having been said, in Rubio’s defense, the Kern County Registrar of voters says that 320 Quincy is in the 16th District. That said, it would appear that the Kern County Registrar is in error.
There is no doubt that this matter is going to end up in front of a judge, in my opinion. And the court will ultimately decide whether Rubio can run or not. But wouldn’t it be the colossal blunder of all time if Democrats, in a competitive seat, suddenly had their only candidate on the ballot ruled as having been ineligible to qualify to run for the office in the first place?
We’ll see how this plays out in the coming days and weeks…
I will close by leaving you with this short video of Rubio that, given the context, is priceless. In it he describes how confusing the boundaries of the 16th Senate District are — but it’s his closing line that is the great one. He says, "It’s very frustrating to have to tell folks that because you live across the street you just aren’t in it [SD 16]."
Yes, Supervisor, apparently it is!
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