The recently released Field Poll shows former Governor Jerry “moonbeam” Brown with a wide lead in the Democrat primary and a sizable lead over all GOP challengers.

Brown enjoys a lot of advantages — particularly in the Democrat primary.  His biggest advantage is that most of his strongest challengers have fallen by the wayside, leaving him to face (currently) only controversial SF mayor Gavin Newsom.

Newsom is best known statewide for his guttural “it’s coming whether you like or not,” mocking of traditional marriage.  Many same-sex marriage proponents blame Newsome’s riff – and his subsequent response – for the passage of Prop 8, and the arrogant declaration probably alienated values voters in both parties permanently.

So matched up against Newsom, you gotta like Brown’s odds.

But I don’t think Brown should start posing for a new Gubernatorial portrait just yet. 

Brown has successfully hidden from all the issues while preparing for a run by cleverly using his position as Attorney General to raise big cash while ducking every tough question the “real” Gubernatorial candidates are tackling.  While that tactic has insulated him from tough issues or details that could be critiqued, it also pushes the tough positions he will have to take deeper into the campaign cycle, when voters are paying more attention.

Older voters – where Brown enjoys the greatest support – are also the voters who can most easily be reminded of “Moonbeam’s” past.  And since his campaign is largely about the past, he’ll have to face his own:  aborted Presidential campaigns, support of Rose Bird’s soft on criminals Judicial decisions, embracing Jane Fonda’s radical anti-US rhetoric and what could most generously be described as “mercurial” governing style.  Throw in a couple of UFO sitings and you paint a picture that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

While some nostalgia voters might hope Brown can roll back the clock to simpler era, and hard-core partisan liberals will prefer any “D” when casting a ballot; for the most part, Brown is the candidate of the past, he’s an icon of  California’s 1970’s-era liberal establishment and is running on past accomplishments – while California voters are looking for a better future.

Brown would try to roll back the clock to time when his new-age Zen management were relevant.  He’s not a candidate with new ideas who can lead California to a brighter future. 

The GOP has a great opportunity — but we must field a strong candidate in order to beat the well known and still telegenic Brown.  

Next up:  the GOP candidates for Governor.

This entry was posted on Monday, October 12th, 2009 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.