I hope it is a Merry Christmas Day for FlashReport readers! Unfortunately, it will not be a totally Merry Christmas for at least one Republican Member of Congress from California wishing for long-term incumbancy.
That is because a couple days ago the Census Bureau issued a new population update that demonstrates by the "long term" and "short term" models, that California will actually lose one of its 53 Congressional seats as a result of the upcoming 2010 Census, to be administered by the Obama Administration Commerce Department under Secretary Bill Richardson. This will be the first time in modern history that California will actually lose a Congressional seat. Additional states likely to lose one seat include Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, and New York. Ohio may lose two seats. Picking up seats will likely be Texas (4 new seats!), Arizona and Florida (2 each) and one each in Oregon and South Carolina, with North Carolina perhaps picking up a seat. For more details, see the Election Data Services website at www.edssurvey.com.
Under Proposition 11, the California State Assembly will be reapportioned by a neutral sort of Commission. But the Democratic Legislature will have complete control of the California Congressional district reapportionment, to occur after 2010 in time for the 2012 elections, subject only to a potential Governor’s veto (whoever that will be after 2010). It is very likely that the Congressional seat the Legislature ejects will be one held by an incumbent Republican, thus, at best, forcing two incumbents in neighboring districts to run against each other, or one to retire. The thing is, however, the Democrats in the Legislature likely won’t pick on a Republican incumbent near retirement, as that would not be Grinch-like enough.
But enough of politics on Christmas Day! Happy holidays to all!