We’re down to less than two weeks left in the campaign.
We know how all but 3 down-ticket races are going to end up.
How LG, Controller, and Sec State turn out is still to be determined. Lots of decisions still are to be made and lots of money is still to be spent.
Each campaign still has some significant cash that will make a difference in the outcome. But legitimately, these three races are looking like they will be more shaped by independent expenditure efforts than by their respective campaigns.
And that isn’t a knock on the campaigns. The slates have been bought. The research has been done. It’s just that with the cash left for the last 13 days, these IE’s have far more to spend than any down ticket candidate.
On the Dem side, the Unions have pulled their money out of Angelides’ sinking ship. How much will they really end up spending on down ticket races? And where will they focus their efforts? These will be big questions in the coming 13 days.
First to see some major action on the Dem side is John Chiang, who yesterday received a $262,000 tv buy from the unions.
On the Republican side, some businesses are putting up some pretty hefty cash. Already, $1,000,000 sits in a committee who’s only expenditure is a ~$66,000 tv buy for Tony Strickland. If that’s just a small market test buy, to gauge their ad’s impact before airing it statewide, Tony might be seeing a major ad buy from these guys in the coming days.
The ultimate outcome of these down ticket races though could sit in the hands of the Indians. They have put over $9,000,000 into their new campaign committee – Team 2006. So far, they’ve spent about $1.6 million on legislative races, leaving them about $7.5 million. Not chump change.
Within the past week, they’ve started dipping into that on behalf of the statewides. Beginning with a survey and some ad production, just yesterday the Indians bought up $917,000 of tv time for Tony Strickland. Rumors have that amount growing even higher, and McClintock soon becoming a beneficiary of their efforts as well.
$6.5 million left – of just what is currently in the Indians’ account – and what has been long, hard campaigns for many of these candidates may well come down to where they decide to put their money…
It’s going to be an exciting 13 days.