The makeup of the Assembly Republican Caucus, which has already been fairly conservative, will be taking a slight shift even more to the right after the new 11-member Freshman class is sworn in this December. Thanks to the atrocious ‘incumbent protection plan’ adopted by the legislature earlier in the decade, almost all of California’s 80 Assembly Districts are not competitive – drawn to either elect a Democrat (which is most of the districts) or a Republican.
There are 32 members of the Assembly that are GOPers right now. And if we look at the Republicans who one the party nomination in the 11 seats where the incumbents either did not or could not run for re-election, it isn’t hard to see where I am coming from:
Conservatives being replaced by conservatives – in these five districts, the ideology of the new nominee virtually mirrors that of the retiring legislator.
- In District 25, Tom Berryhill will replace Dave Cogdill (who is running for Poochigian’s State Senate seat).
- In District 59, Anthony Adams will replace Dennis Mountjoy (who is term-limited).
- In District 66, Kevin Jeffries will replace Ray Haynes (who is termed-out and lost his bid for BOE3).
- In District 74, Martin Garrick will replace Mark Wyland (who is running for Morrow’s State Senate seat).
- In District 77, Joel Anderson will replace Jay LaSuer (who is termed-limited).
Moderates being replaced by conservatives – in these districts, the ideology of the new nominee is to the right of the retiring legislator. (This is the group where the change will mean a more conservative GOP caucus next year.)
- District 4, Ted Gaines is replacing Tim Leslie, who is known to be more conservative on social issues, but more moderate on economic issues.
- District 38, Cameron Smyth is much more conservative than than Keith Richman (who was unsuccessful in his bid for Treasurer).
- District 65, Paul Cook will represent a slight right-tilt from Russ Bogh (who is term-limited).
- District 67, Jim Silva is more conservative than Tom Harman (who is now in the State Senate).
- District 72, Mike Duvall is certainly more conservative than Lynn Daucher (who is running for State Senate).
It should be noted above that a number of the retiring moderate members were elected during the one-year of the Open Primary (Prop. 198 was struck down after the 2000 election cycle).
Thomas protege replaced by new Thomas-machine member:
I am not sure if "moderate" is the right word to describe the Thomas machine people.
- Jean Fuller will replace McCarthy, who is going to Congress.
It is also notable that two conservatives faced primary challengers from overtly-moderate candidates and in both cases, the incumbents easily bested their opponents. In AD 36, Sharon Runner won with 70% of the vote. In AD 37, Audra Strickland won with 66% of the vote.
To be fair, it is possible that we will pick up another GOP seat or two in the legislature, but that will be a tall order. If we did, the most likely ‘pickup’ would be is conservative Danny Gilmore were to ‘take out’ incumbent Democrat Nicole Parra in the Central Valley’s 30th District.
What does this shift to the right mean for policy in the legislature? We’ll all be talking about that in the months to come. But one vote to look back on would be the votes on the big bond$ package. Clearly it would have been much harder for that package to have passed had it been before next year’s Assembly Republican Caucus.
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