I’ve been out of commission for a couple of weeks and just now catching up with the news. Last week’s PPIC poll has some in our State wondering if the Governor’s post special election strategy is working, as his approval ratings are inching back up from the lows of last fall.
The answer is: no.
Anecdotally, which is one way of gaining a feel for political winds in the air, we know the Governor has depressed his base horridly, and the chances of recovery are slim to none. This is based on email I receive, conversations in restaurants and social functions, and with my small business peers. Without exception these encounters have been pretty much the same. People around here admire his moxy for making a run at reform for the special election, but are disgusted with his State of the Union proposals. “What the hell is he borrowing all this money for?” is a common question.
Another way of looking at poll numbers is through the prism of recent political history and here my analysis is simple – he’s running unopposed at the moment. He’s active, in the news, proposing policies and there are pictures of him smiling on local TV and newspapers. Criticism and opposition are scattered. Many people aren’t paying attention. Democrats will regain their focus against him in the summer, with teacher, firefighters, cops, nurses and prison guards doing their bidding at the rate of $10 million a week or more on TV. Republicans will be downcast because they face having to support policies that they don’t like to re-elect a Governor who isn’t a fiscal conservative anymore. It just doesn’t work. Bush can get away with it because we like him as commander and chief and we love his Supreme Court nominees. Arnold’s best accomplishment to date, workers’ comp reform, isn’t even known about by 90% of the voters.
Plus, are we really going to see a great campaign by the Governor? What new political talent is there in the State that we don’t know about. It’s so bad, that we have to go back to the 1994 Wilson re-election to see the kind of clarity and tenacity a campaign needs to win Statewide. Sending Fred Aguiar out to Central Committee meetings isn’t tenacity. If he comes to Fresno he’ll wish he went to Amador instead. We aren’t easily fooled around here.
Rising poll numbers? No.