Some of the results of the Survey of San Diego County Voters conducted for the Marijuana Policy Project (January 3-4, 2006 500 likely voters +/- 4.38) conducted by Evans/McDonough. These are numbers for Supervisors in their own districts, not countywide:

Supervisor Cox (R): Strong Fav 13/Somewhat Fav 23/Somewhat Unfav 10/Strong Unfav 2/No Opinion 20/Never Heard 32

Supervisor Jacob (R): Strong Fav 26/Somewhat Fav 32/Somewhat Unfav 7/Strong Unfav 5/No Opinion 15/Never Heard 15

Supervisor Slater (R): Strong Fav 5/Somewhat Fav 22/Somewhat Unfav 10/Strong Unfav 6/No Opinion 24/Never Heard 34

Supervisor Roberts (R): Strong Fav 15/Somewhat Fav 28/Somewhat Unfav 24/Strong Unfav 10/No Opinion 18/Never Heard 4

Supervisor Horn (R): Strong Fav 11/Somewhat Fav 35/Somewhat Unfav 15/Strong Unfav 4/No Opinion 19/Never Heard 16

PLEASE NOTE: the number of voters surveyed in each Supervisorial District was 100, which increases the +/- considerably. The poll as a whole comes close to other polling I’ve seen recently, though. Term limits countywide came in 84% for 13% against, which should make folks in Sacramento who want to fix the term limit problem shudder. The various questions on marijuana appears to lean a bit towards the "pro" side – maybe because they are a bit leading.

However, taking the numbers as they are:

Kudos to Supervisor Jacob for 58% positives – she’s clearly the big winner. Let’s put it this way: most non-target state officials are lucky to have 35% name identification among their own primary election base, let alone those kind of numbers. My guess is from rubbing my eyeballs on other county polling that she is more popular than the Sheriff or the D.A. in her own district.

Slater has some name identification/opinion issues (58% no opinion or never heard). Part of the reason may be that her seat underwent a pretty radical redistricting in 2002. She has lower positives than the other Supervisors, probably for the same reason. If cross-tabs were available they might show her strong support lies along the coast in her old district, while voters inland either don’t know who she is, or do not associate her with anything. Slater is not up for election this year – there is no reason these numbers could not be changed. There are rumors she is exploring a bid for Congress in the 50th (a safe run).

Roberts numbers are split leaning positive, which probably stems from his Mayoral bids and the fact that his district leans Democrat. He’s parked in the middle with voters who either don’t know who he is or don’t associate him with anything that would give them an opinion of him. Roberts is up for election this year, facing Democrat City Councilwoman Toni Atkins. Overall, these numbers are positive for his re-election… I’m going to double my bets on him.

Perhaps the most interesting numbers are those of Supervisor Cox. 36% positive v. 12% negative v. 52% no opinion or never heard. I went back and looked at the polling numbers after I wrote this email to make sure I copied them down right, because I though the 32% never heard of numbers were high, and I still do. Pondering for a while, I came up with another explanation though: the folks with the best overall numbers (Horn & Jacob, and to a lesser extent Roberts) tend to have more forceful policy positions that make interesting news watching or reading from a consumer standpoint. This is not to take away from Cox as a Supervisor – frankly he is probably one of the most genuinely good people I’ve ever met, and if we had more politicians like Cox we’d have a lot fewer indictments. But it’s not always the measured response that makes the paper, or the evening news.

Only one surprise with Supervisor Horn (disclosure: a former employer): 19% of the voters who know of him don’t have an opinion. Horn is probably the most aggressive Supervisor in terms of his press operation, and is one to speak his mind clearly and without reservation. I’ve met many people over the years who love him, some who hate him, but virtually no one with no opinion!

This entry was posted on Monday, January 23rd, 2006 at 12:00 am and is filed under Blog Posts.