The follwing appears in Roll Call Magazine today. Writer David Drucker has been writing on California politics for a long time, and recently joined RC as their West Coast Reporter:
By David M. Drucker
Roll Call Staff
January 9, 2006
With enough Republicans to fill a passenger van running in California’s 50th district open primary, Democrat Francine Busby is likely to emerge from the April 11 contest on top, though well short of the 50 percent-plus one needed to win the seat outright.The special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R) in the heavily Republican, northern San Diego County-area district has attracted at least eight Republicans. They are almost certain to divide the GOP vote and open the door for Busby and Democrats looking for a public relations boost in their attempt to prove voters are fed up with the misdeeds of Congressional Republicans."My guess is, she’ll get 35-36 percent of the vote, and that will be more than any other Republican will get," said a consultant for one of the Republicans in the race. "That being said, it doesn=C2=B9t make any difference. Ice [won’t] melt in hell before a Democrat gets elected in this district."
According to California’s rules for special elections called to replace prematurely departed House Members, the top votegetter for each political party advances to a runoff unless one candidate secures 50 percent plus one of the vote in the open primary. Voters who go to the polls in the special elections are able to select any candidate, regardless of party.Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) called the election after Cunningham resigned amid a host of corruption charges he pleaded guilty to just before vacating his office early last month. Some Democrats see this race as a test-case for their theory that ethics issues afflicting some high-profile Republicans have soured even voters who normally lean right.
"To win an open primary like that would give Busby a great deal of momentum heading into the runoff," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Sarah Feinberg.There is now a second Democrat in the race, law student and bank officer Chris Young, but the DCCC has all but pledged to strongly back Busby, while EMILY’s List (traditionally protective of its won-lost record on endorsements) is also supporting her.Neither the committee nor EMILY’s List has determined how much money and other resources it will allocate to Busby’s campaign, however.
Democrats, while excited about their chances in this race, acknowledge they have an uphill climb in a district where Republicans have a voter-registration edge of 55,000. But they say failing to steal the 50th district seat from Republicans would not foreshadow a failure of their strategy to win back control of the House by capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with GOP ethics problems.Republican strategists based in San Diego agree voters are upset about government corruption, because in addition to Cunningham, the San Diego city government has had its share of ethics woes recently.But they note that a Republican was just elected mayor (albeit in a nonpartisan race), which they contend proves voters are highly unlikely to punish other Republicans generally for the sins of a few rogue GOP politicians.
Among the Republicans competing in the special election, former Rep. Brian Bilbray, former state Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian and current state Sen.Bill Morrow have the name-identification advantage. All three also have the benefit of having waged and won political campaigns either within or adjacent to the 50th Congressional district.Former California Republican Party Executive Director Jon Fleischman reported on his Flashreport.org Web log late last week that Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) told him personally that he plans to endorse Bilbray, although Issa’s office declined to confirm or deny that an endorsement is pending. Issa spokesman Frederick Hill would say only that his boss, who represents a neighboring San Diego County district, plans to make an announcement about the race as early as today. One endorsement Bilbray did pick up last week was that of the Deputy Sheriffs’ Association of San Diego County.
Wealthy businessman Alan Uke, meanwhile, is one of the unknowns who hopes to follow in Issa’s footsteps, as Issa himself was a multimillionaire who had never held political office before winning his Congressional seat in 2000.Uke put a biography-type ad on cable television last week and plans to stay on the air for the duration of the campaign. He has dropped $300,000 of his own money into the race and raised at least $95,000 from outside sources.Uke campaign aide Bryan Lanza said his candidate plans to dominate all facets of the campaign, including ground-game, direct mail and the television airwaves.As far as his lack of name identification, Lanza said that "once voters have been made aware of what he’ll make up ground quickly."
For now, the remainder of the deep Republican field includes:
– Richard Earnest, the former mayor of the seaside hamlet of Del Mar;
– U.S. Air Force veteran and commercial airline pilot Ed Folsom;
– Wealthy businessman Ken King;
– California Highway Patrol Sgt. Jeff Newsome;
– Businessman George Schwartzman;
– Former National Football League player Scott Turner. He interned for Rep.Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) following a playing career that included stints with the San Diego Chargers, Washington Redskins and Denver Broncos.
Most of these candidates are not expected to register more than a blip when the votes are tallied following the April 11 special open primary. But they will probably divvy up the Republican vote and allow Busby to receive the most votes in that contest. Republicans, pointing to the strong GOP tilt of the district, said they expect Democrats (and possibly the media) to blow any such showing out of proportion, as they argue she has no chance of winning the runoff. In 2004, Cunningham beat Busby by 22 points, securing 58 percent of the vote. The presidential race saw President Bush garner 55 percent of the vote in the 50th district to beat Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) by 11 points.The runoff, required if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, is scheduled for June 6, the same day as California’s statewide gubernatorial primary and other Congressional primaries. Presumably, many of the candidates competing in the April 11 special election will also file to run in the June 6 primaries.
Kudos to Jon for the ‘shout out’ from Drucker in this piece. Issa did, in fact, endorse Bilbray. But the news broke here, at the FR!