First, an update on the Leader race. RSC Chairman Mike Pence of Indiana and Appropriations Committee Chairman Jerry Lewis of California have both taken their names out of the race. Conservatives in the House are still optimistic that Arizona Rep. John Shadegg will still decide to jump in though its seems Shadegg is unconvinced 1) that he can win and 2) that is useful for conservatives to run and lose. Yet, there is a desire to clean house and Shadegg could benefit from that.
On that note, there is a movement among the GOP Conference to have full leadership elections and have a fresh start. However, Conference rules do not require that and by my understanding, that would take 50 members to sign a petition calling for full elections (it might even require a petition for each of the 8 elected positions). This movement is not limited to conservatives and could build steam.
If Roy Blunt wins the Leader race (by my count he has a very slight lead), he would then vacate the Whip’s job. Here the candidates lined up to replace him:
Eric Cantor, Virginia. In only his third term in the House, Cantor is a smooth, yet sincere guy who is trusted by conservatives and moderates alike. Cantor has been a great asset to the party in reaching out to the Jewish community and is a prodigious fundraiser who has been very generous and active on behalf of members of the GOP Conference. He currently serves as Chief Deputy Whip, a position appointed by the Whip (Blunt and Speaker Hastert were both Chief Deputies to DeLay when he was Whip). Cantor is also very active with the Republican Study Committee and is reported to have 140 votes of the 116 necessary to win.
Mike Rogers, Michigan. Currently Director of Coalitions (K Street) for the Whip and formerly Finance Chairman of the NRCC, Rogers was expected to be picked by Blunt to be his Chief Deputy in 2003 and all of Washington was surprised when Blunt picked the then-obscure Cantor. Rogers dutifully took on the coalitions post and has been very effective. Rogers acknowledged that he starts the race at a disadvantage but put himself forward to give the Conference an option. As a former FBI agent, Rogers could bring the leadership a fresh face with law enforcement credentials to help with the party image in a bad environment.
Todd Tiahrt, Kansas. A senior member of the Appropriations Committee, a member of the Whip team, and an active RSC member, Tiahrt is putting himself forward as the RSC candidate although many RSC members have already gotten behind Cantor. Tiahrt could benefit, however, from the move to have full leadership elections and a desire of the RSC to put forward fresh faces in the elected leadership.