ARNOLD TO GIVE STATE OF THE STATE ADDRESS
Today at 5 p.m., the Governor will issue his 2006 State of the State Address before a special joint session of the California State Legislature. If you are not one of the 120 legislators, and other assorted VIP types who will be in the Assembly chambers, you can watch a streaming video of the Governor’s speech live right here. In preparation for his speech, I would recommend that you do three things:
First I would take a minute to read last year’s State of the State Address right here. This will give you a benchmark of where the Governor was coming from one year ago, fresh from having been elected in the special election in which the discredited Gray Davis was recalled. In this 2005 speech, you can hear the Governor that we all voted for in the recall election – the fiscal conservative to pledged to reform California, and subdue the influence of the special interests that reigned under the ‘pay to play’ administration of Gray Davis. You can compare this speech to the one you hear today.
Second, I would take a few minutes to read the featured column in the 
FlashReport today, entitled A Guide To Rating The State Of The State Address. This insightful piece was penned by the Hoover Institution’s Bill Whalen. Bill is a regular contributor to the FlashReport Weblog, but more importantly, he was formerly the Chief Speechwriter to former Governor Pete Wilson. Bill has a little first-hand knowledge about State of the State speeches, having collaborated on a few of them! (Bill will slaughter me for this – but I should add that he does a little side work penning speeches and doing other writing – so drop him a line if you have a writing project, or a speech to deliver!)
FlashReport today, entitled A Guide To Rating The State Of The State Address. This insightful piece was penned by the Hoover Institution’s Bill Whalen. Bill is a regular contributor to the FlashReport Weblog, but more importantly, he was formerly the Chief Speechwriter to former Governor Pete Wilson. Bill has a little first-hand knowledge about State of the State speeches, having collaborated on a few of them! (Bill will slaughter me for this – but I should add that he does a little side work penning speeches and doing other writing – so drop him a line if you have a writing project, or a speech to deliver!)Third, check back on the FlashReport Weblog during and after the speech. I will be attending the speech in Sacramento, and will be posting some mid and post speech analysis. You may also get some feedback from other FlashReport Contributors! My very real concern, that I will be looking for, is whether with this speech, the Governor is ‘shifting his base’ away from the Republican Party, to ‘unchartered’ territory.
CONGRESSMAN DARRELL ISSA WILL ENDORSE BRIAN BILBRAY
As FR readers know, with the resignation of military-ace-turned- common-criminal Duke Cunningham from Congress in San Diego, there is now a special election taking place in this safe GOP territory. The all-deciding primary for this seat will be in early April, and the race has been shaping up as a donnybrook, with lots of dynamics at work. A really-really quick overview of the race is that there are two prominent strong conservatives in the race – State Senator Bill Morrow, and former Assemblyman Howard Kaloogian. Add to the mix the very moderate former Congressman Brian Bilbray (now a Washington, D.C. lobbyist), who represented a neighboring House seat for years – a much more competitive seat – until he was defeated by a Democrat. There are a number of others in the race, though going through them now doesn’t really add to this particular piece.I spoke with Congressman Darrell Issa yesterday, who confirmed that he will, in fact, be endorsing Brian Bilbray. As a matter of fact, it seems that Issa is "moving in" to take charge, as sources have confirmed for me that Issa’s favorite 
consultant, Dave Gilliard, has now come onboard with Bilbray’s campaign. I had already heard from many sources about Issa’s weighing in, so I would have reported it without talking to him – so hopefully my scoop here doesn’t annoy him. Such is life in politics. In our conversation, Issa made it clear that he thinks that given the dynamics of this particular primary, Bilbray is the strongest candidate. I’m sure that Issa will explain more about his decision to endorse someone significantly to his left (on the GOP spectrum) when he makes his official announcement – I don’t feel comfortable speaking on his behalf.
consultant, Dave Gilliard, has now come onboard with Bilbray’s campaign. I had already heard from many sources about Issa’s weighing in, so I would have reported it without talking to him – so hopefully my scoop here doesn’t annoy him. Such is life in politics. In our conversation, Issa made it clear that he thinks that given the dynamics of this particular primary, Bilbray is the strongest candidate. I’m sure that Issa will explain more about his decision to endorse someone significantly to his left (on the GOP spectrum) when he makes his official announcement – I don’t feel comfortable speaking on his behalf.Especially since this is a ‘safe’ GOP seat (well, that is conventional wisdom in a pre-Duke Cunningham/Jack Abramoff era), the real issue isn’t who will beat the Democrat, but rather how will the Congressman from the 50th District fit into the GOP majority in Congress. While there is a technical Republican majority in the House, as a practical matter, it is a handful of moderate GOPers that are really keeping us from significantly paring down the size and scope of the federal government. Bilbray is definitely a moderate GOPer. I could go chapter and verse on his squishy bonafides – actually, I will list just a few. There is his (relatively) low American Conservative Union rating to start. He participated in a press conference at the Republican National Convention, calling on the pro-life plank to be pulled from the GOP Platform. He is on record voting for massive increases to budget of the National Endowment for the Arts (read: federal boondoggle). He voted to oppose banning adoption by homosexual partners. He self-describes himself as ‘pro-choice.’ Anyways, I could go on and on. Literally. (It seems like every day I get more information sent to me, unsolicited). Anyways, it is clear that Bilbray is not conservative, and I don’t know that he tells people that he is — that said, Bilbray does have a conservative record on immigration issues, and his supporters say that he stands tall with the GOP when it matters, on close votes.
It seems to me that the short-term political loss with this development goes to wealthy businessman Alan Uke. Uke is also a moderate GOPer, and with Bilbray 
getting a boost, it would, on the natural, cut into Uke’s share of the vote. Of course, given Uke’s ability to put in millions, and the ability of his consultant, Jim Nygren, to craft extremely effective negative mail when he has to — expect for Bilbray to quickly become a target. I’ve seen a reference in at least one article to Bilbray’s relationship with the recently-plead-guilty uber-lobbyist Jack Abromoff, and I wouldn’t be surprised, in this district (Cunningham-gate) if that really doesn’t sit well. (By the way, I am in NO WAY saying that Bilbray did anything wrong or illegal, just that he, like many Congressmen, will have to deal with the fall out of the Abramoff mess.)
getting a boost, it would, on the natural, cut into Uke’s share of the vote. Of course, given Uke’s ability to put in millions, and the ability of his consultant, Jim Nygren, to craft extremely effective negative mail when he has to — expect for Bilbray to quickly become a target. I’ve seen a reference in at least one article to Bilbray’s relationship with the recently-plead-guilty uber-lobbyist Jack Abromoff, and I wouldn’t be surprised, in this district (Cunningham-gate) if that really doesn’t sit well. (By the way, I am in NO WAY saying that Bilbray did anything wrong or illegal, just that he, like many Congressmen, will have to deal with the fall out of the Abramoff mess.) Well, I am sure this will all develop – and when Darrell Issa makes his endorsement of Bilbray official, you can all smile, since you already know all about it! :)
I’m off to Sacramento.
Have a great day!
Jon