Posted by Congressman John Campbell at 12:00 am on Sep 28, 2009 Comments Off on It’s the Economy Stupid
This was the famous reminder posted in all of then Governor Bill
Clinton’s campaign offices as he ran for President against then
incumbent George H.W. Bush. It was there to keep the campaign from
being distracted by other issues and to focus on the fact that the
economy was bad and people were hurting. It worked.
But the economy is much worse now. And as President Obama
fiddles away in the White House with a government take-over of
health care, the economy is far from being out of the woods.
Yes, the economy will almost certainly be declared to be
technically out of recession in this quarter. Things have stopped
getting worse. Monthly job losses have declined. But we should not
be sanguine. There are 4 major risks on the horizon which could
lead us into a "double dip" or "W-shaped" recession next year. Many
economists, including some of President Obama’s advisors, have told
me they think that the risk of slipping back into recession next
year is at least 50%.
What would cause that to happen? See the following:
1.) First of all, this "recovery" is
weak and jobless. There… Read More