After talking with a number of savvy politicos whose opinions I hold in high regard, I think it is safe to say that the expected outcome of today’s Special Election in Orange County’s 72nd Assembly District will be that Supervisor Chris Norby will win the Republican nomination, but fall well short of the outright majority of the total vote necessary to avoid a run-off election next month.

The analysis is pretty straight-forward. Chris Norby, as first a long-time Fullerton City Councilmember (the largest city in AD 72) and then as a two-time elected Supervisor, simply had too much positive name identification in the district to be defeated. Most of those to whom I spoke felt that if this election were being held on a more traditional time-line, with a much longer period of time for voters to hear from candidates and advocacy groups, that Republican National Committeewoman and Metropolitan Water District Member Linda Ackerman would have had a very good shot at winning a plurality of support from Republican voters. The short time line meant that literally only a few weeks elapsed before absentee ballots were shipped out and high-propensity AB voters… Read More

When the dam breaks, you know that the water is going to rush through and wash out that quiet little town down the hill. With that same certainly, you knew when you saw this rather awkward (for Steve Poizner) article run over the weekend in the San Jose Mercury News, that you would invariably see the Meg Whitman campaign figure out a way to "elevate its prominence in the political marketplace" — they have created a web ad.

Of course, as I have said all along, I am a total sucker for these things. So here is a hard hitting web ad from the Whitman campaign blasting Poizner. When the Whitman campaign released the hit, they also sent out some backup materials, which you can read here.

We’ve emailed the Poizner campaign, asking them if they have any general or specific response to this piece. If we get a response, we’ll share it!

… Read More

Last I checked, Republicans are in a tough spot in the State Assembly. There are 51 Democrats, and 29 Republicans (well, 28 right now while the 72nd is vacant — it will elect a Republican shortly). That means that Democrats hold just over 63% of the chamber — bad news for taxpayers for sure.

That said, I took it pretty cynically when I ready Torey Van Oot’s morning post over on the SacBee’s Capitol Alert blog — where she wrote about Assembly Speaker Karen Bass appointing a Select Committee on Prison Re-Entry. Torey penned…

Last week the Board of Equalization released its updated e-commerce revenue estimate. The Legislature and others have long cast their attention on e-commerce revenues. It is true there are many taxable transactions from which tax is not being collected from either the Sales tax, which must be collected by companies that have California nexus, or Use tax from individuals and businesses who order something from the Internet and use or consume purchases in California.

The report states, “We now estimate annual revenue losses of $1.085 billion in calendar year 2009 (to be remitted in fiscal year 2009-10). Of the total, $600 million are owed by consumers and $485 million were unpaid by businesses. These revenues are spread among approximately 12.7 million households and 2.9 million businesses.”

This may seem like a big number, but look more closely at the math. “Unpaid sales and use tax liabilities in 2009-10 average $166 per year for each California business, and $47 per year for each California household.” To recover these unpaid liabilities, the Board staff would need to go after all these individuals and businesses. Right now it cannot be… Read More

Today Governor Schwarzenegger is supposedly visiting U.S. troops stationed in Iraq. That said, I got an e-mail this morning from a loyal FlashReport reader asking me if the Governor was secretly on a mission to the moon, to find out if the recent discovery of water there could somehow be utilized to help California with it’s h20 woes.

He writes, "I read where Arnold mentioned using some technology from his fictional tale of the future, Total Recall, to build the state’s peripheral canal as a long tunnel. So maybe now he’s on the moon to see if in addition to discovering water, he can "find" an ancient alien machine that, if activated by his hand, would somehow transport this lunar water to Earth, and to Central Valley farms."

He then sent me a link to the clip from Total Recall.… Read More

As we continue to assess the lay of the land of Republican primaries in “safe” GOP or competitive seats, today we turn our virtual magnifying glass on the 68th Assembly District. This district is located in the center-west of Orange County. (See the map here.) It includes all or part of the following cities: Stanton, Garden Grove, Westminster, Fountain Valley, and Costa Mesa. The seat is currently held by my friend going back to college days, Republican Assemblyman Van Tran. Tran is departing the Assembly after his third allowable term, and is running hard for Congress, where he is challenging incumbent Democrat Loretta Sanchez.

By the numbers, the seat has been considered safe Republican. There are 90,496 GOP voters (41%), 72,992 Democrat voters (33%), and 47,166 Decline to… Read More

As we continue to assess the lay of the land of Republican primaries in “safe” GOP or competitive seats, today we turn our virtual magnifying glass on the 68th Assembly District. This district is located in the center-west of Orange County. (See the map here.) It includes all or part of the following cities: Stanton, Garden Grove, Westminster, Fountain Valley, and Costa Mesa. The seat is currently held by my friend going back to college days, Republican Assemblyman Van Tran. Tran is departing the Assembly after his third allowable term, and is running hard for Congress, where he is challenging incumbent Democrat Loretta Sanchez.

By the numbers, the seat has been considered safe Republican. There are 90,496 GOP voters (41%), 72,992 Democrat voters (33%), and 47,166 Decline to… Read More

7:20 pmUpdate…All the related data that only a wonk and/or a hack could possibly relish in has been added to the SDRostra post. __________________________ See the press release below and don’t even begin to tell me that aging name ID from the green-and-white-car days doesn’t mean anything.

That said, it’s still significantly early. Name ID can be softened just as significantly with financial resources and momentum. AppointedSheriff Bill Gore and former Assemblyman Jay La Suer have plenty of time to pick up both. Alternatively, Jim Duffy has the same amount of time to try to translate left-over name ID into something that heads off a closing pack.

This race will be way closer than the early polling shows, but this does help spell out for the entire field how to strategize going forward.

Watch for Duffy to continue to capitalize on his family name, while balancingthat against his own background and leadership skills, as well as his support by labor groups.

Watch Gore try to springboard on the support of retired… Read More