With a h/t and shoutout FR friend Paul Mitchell who went through great efforts to organize it online, venerable political analyst Charlie Cook’s first real analysis of how California Congressional Redistricting is available here. It’s worth looking at — it even has maps! Of course this is all one person’s take, and the Commission has yet to release any preliminary plans… But it’s worth a peek.

Cook predicts the following incumbents may have some trouble due to new lines…

Republicans

Dan Lungren (CA-03) Elton Gallegly (CA-24) David Dreier (CA-26) Gary Miller (CA-42) Ken Calvert (CA-44)

Democrats

Jerry McNerney (CA-11) Sam Farr (CA-17) Dennis Cardoza (CA-18) Jim Costa (CA-20) Brad Sherman (CA-27) Howard Berman (CA-28) Laura Richardson … Read More

There is no more significant organizational endorsement for a Republican candidates for office, partisan or non, than this one — congratulations to Chuck DeVore… – Flash

The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association PAC Endorses Chuck DeVore for Orange County Board of Supervisors

March 29, 2011, Irvine, CA – The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association PAC, California’s foremost defender of taxpayers’ rights, today announced its endorsement of former State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in his campaign for Orange County Board of Supervisors, 3rd District. Jon Coupal, the President of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the largest taxpayers association in… Read More

AFP California Airs Radio Ads Opposing Governor’s Tax Increases Grassroots group begins campaign to educate citizens about attempts to increase taxes

Sacramento—Grassroots taxpayer advocacy organization Americans for Prosperity California kicks off the "Hold Them Accountable" campaign today airing radio ads calling on taxpayers to urge their legislators to oppose Governor Jerry Brown’s tax increases. Specifically, the ads will focus on Senators Tom Berryhill and Anthony Cannella, both Republicans who seem open to supporting the tax hikes. The ads are part of a media and ground campaign to educate and mobilize citizens in opposition to tax increases.

Listen to the ad – below the ad is the script…

… Read More

Five years ago, when the proposal for a redistricting commission came up before the Legislature, I balked. I said then that the Democrats would figure out a way to turn the commission their way. Redistricting is the most political thing that occurs in politics. Careers and jobs are on the line, and since government is the "be all and end all" for Democrats, they would make sure they would take over the process. The only problem? We would lose all accountability. We couldn’t argue that the lines were unfair. We asked for, and got, a "balanced, unbiased" commission. In the mine of politics, the Democrats would get the gold, and we would get the shaft.

I was told to mind my own business. My colleagues said I didn’t know what I was talking about. I pointed out that there was no such thing as an unbiased commission. In the world of politics, Democrats go out of their way to be partisan, and they prove it every day by attacking Republicans. Republicans, on the other hand, go out of their way to be nonpartisan, and they prove it every day by attacking… Read More

Recently, I posted a couple districts that make sense to me. In the end, I think the commission has many many different options on how to draw these lines but this is one take. Clearly there are other ways to do this.

The North State has a couple issues. One is that it is tradition to have a 101 District (AD 1), and I-5 District (AD 2) and a 395 District (AD 3). The commission is not required to do this but it would make sense.

The other issue is that Yuba County is a Section 5 County. It is going to remain whole. It would just make sense to keep it together.

So with that I throw out this district for consideration. I started in Modoc, and included the entire counties of Lassen, Plumas, and Sierra. Then I added all of Butte, Yuba,and Sutter. After all of this I was just a few thousand residents short of an Assembly district. So in looking at communities that identified more with Yuba/Sutter I added in the community of Rough & Ready. This community tends to associate more with the Yuba Sutter area than the rest of Nevada County.… Read More

With the resignation of long-time Los Angeles South Bay Congresswoman Jane Harman, there is a big food fight taking place between two of California’s highest profile liberal ladies to succeed her — Secretary of State Debra Bowen (who represented that area locally in the State Legislature for many years) and Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn.

I know that when I assess the state of play in a Republican primary, one of the first thing I do is look to third-party endorsements, to help me understand what’s really going on. So when I look at the race between Bowen and Hahn, I figure that the best way to figure out that race is to do the same — look at the endorsements. Of course, on the Democrat side of things, no endorsements are more significant than labor.

My first assumption was that Bowen would be cleaning up with big labor endorsements. After all,… Read More

Just looking at some recently published statistics worked up by the Sacramento Bee on California Congressional Districts, it seems pretty obvious to me that Republicans should end up with several more competitive seats than the Democrats will have, when the Redistricting Commission finishes its work. This is because it appears that, of California’s 53 Congressional districts, Democrats are "over-representing" (elected to districts that are populated by less people than there should be) by 5% or more in 22 seats statewide, of the "ideal" population of 702,905 in each district, while Republicans are "over-representing" by at least 5% in just 3 seats. All this over-representing has to be shaken out so that these seats get more voters, meaning in clusters there will be fewer districts. Some of the Democrat "over-representation" is in double-digits, as high as 13% for Democrat Xavier Becerra and 10.2% for Democrat Loretta Sanchez. (This is somewhat akin to being a U.S. Senator from Rhode Island!) It reflects… Read More

Comparing them to Kiwanis Club elections, San Diego County Registrar of Voters Deborah Seiler is involved in an effort to remove the county central committee elections of all parties from primary ballots across the state, citing the high cost of providing a “complete taxpayer subsidy of a private organization.”

Last Tuesday, the Union-Tribune reported on the savings move by several apparently annoyed county registrars in California, which reporter Christopher Cadelago noted — perhaps significantly — had not yet garnered a legislative author.

It’s a must read for the many FlashReport readers involved in the nuts and bolts of local party politics, which — we must admittedly agree — draws little notice from voters (other than the “science” of going down the ballot and selecting a handful of unknown candidates).

Of interest to Republicans, County GOP Chairman Tony Krvaric, minted last weekend as vice chairman South of the State Party, said he is open to looking at an… Read More