A Second U.S. Recession?
Leaders in the financial sector are shifting their investment strategies based on the increased risk the United States is heading toward a second recession.
In its November “On the Markets” newsletter for investors, Morgan Stanley Smith Barney (MSSB) reports that “the odds of recession in the US and the rest of the developed world are uncomfortably high,” and that the firm is reducing the total risk in its asset portfolios as a result.
How likely is a second recession? The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s “Leading Diffusion Index” is currently at a point so low that only once since 1949 has a recession not followed the economy being in this position.
Other voices in the financial sector say the risk of a second US recession is small.
Given that the economic outlook is sufficiently negative for a major financial leader such as MSSB to make the biggest change in its asset allocation in two years leads us to consider the economic and political implications of a double dip.
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