Posted by Jason Cabel Roe at 8:55 am on Dec 12, 2011 1 Comment
We’ve all seen the polls showing Congress with historic low
approval ratings (the most recent poll by CBS shows 11% approval,
82% disapproval). Incumbents nationwide are feeling the
pressure and some seemingly-safe political giants, like Barney
Frank, are calling it quits on their own terms before their
constituents do it on theirs.
In the wake of the GOP route of 2010, Republicans were crowing
that new majorities in state legislatures nationally would enable
redistricting to further cement the congressional majorities,
possibly even gaining seats. However, reality set in and
setbacks in Texas, California, Ohio, Illinois, and possibly even
Florida have changed that forecast.
Most troubling however is that the anti-incumbent mood is likely
to have more impact on Republicans than Democrats, in spite of the
fact that the issues matrix favors right-of-center policies.
First, there are more Republicans than Democrats in Congress so
on the natural, Republicans have more to defend as
incumbents. But that’s not the most troubling news.
I’ve sat through focus groups of Republicans and Democrats and
reviewed polling in races in several states and… Read More