Republicans Should Be Very Concerned About 2012
We’ve all seen the polls showing Congress with historic low approval ratings (the most recent poll by CBS shows 11% approval, 82% disapproval). Incumbents nationwide are feeling the pressure and some seemingly-safe political giants, like Barney Frank, are calling it quits on their own terms before their constituents do it on theirs.
In the wake of the GOP route of 2010, Republicans were crowing that new majorities in state legislatures nationally would enable redistricting to further cement the congressional majorities, possibly even gaining seats. However, reality set in and setbacks in Texas, California, Ohio, Illinois, and possibly even Florida have changed that forecast.
Most troubling however is that the anti-incumbent mood is likely to have more impact on Republicans than Democrats, in spite of the fact that the issues matrix favors right-of-center policies.
First, there are more Republicans than Democrats in Congress so on the natural, Republicans have more to defend as incumbents. But that’s not the most troubling news.
I’ve sat through focus groups of Republicans and Democrats and reviewed polling in races in several states and… Read More