
Analysis: President Obama Unlikely to Get His Wish of a Democrat House in 2014
President Obama’s strategy is clear: focus on winning control of the House for Democrats so he can have the unified control of government he needs to write his legacy in his final two years, as he did in his first.
Republicans today hold a 17 seat House majority, and a review of how House races are shaping up suggests the President is unlikely to get his wish.
To return Nancy Pelosi to the Speaker’s Chair requires a switch of 17 seats in addition to Democrats holding every seat they now occupy, including several in California they barely took from the GOP in 2012. That’s an extraordinarily steep hill to climb.
The outcome of the 2010 elections on the state level continues to have a big effect across the country. While most attention was focused on the Republican takeover of the House that year, less visible were Republican victories at the state level, seizing numerous governorships and state legislatures that set the stage for a 2011 redistricting that was very favorable to the GOP.
Nationally, analyst Charlie Cook rates twice as many Democrat seats as flippable (24), than Republicans (12). That’s the reverse of… Read More