
Reports on polling in the Governor’s race miss the big picture
Have you ever gone to see a movie based on a book you’ve read, and found that the two have less in common than you thought? It’s the same with some of the reporting about the latest PPIC poll, especially as it relates to the governor’s race.
One news story described the race as “a one man show,” citing Brown’s “37 percentage-point edge over his nearest rival…” You get the point. Game over, right?
Not so much.
There are not one, but two elections at play here: the June election, and the November runoff. The dynamics will change radically between the first and the second, and much of the reporting misses this critical fact.
Incumbent Gov. Jerry Brown currently leads in the PPIC poll by that 37%. For all practical purposes, in the June election, which right now is the only one that counts, this number is absolutely, totally meaningless. Everyone knows Brown will place first in the new “top two” primary. It’s the top two finishers who both go on to the runoff, not the top one finisher.
The… Read More