Is Trump Really In First Place?
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[Publisher’s Note: As part of an ongoing effort to bring original, thoughtful commentary to you here at the FlashReport, we are pleased to present this column from Arnold Steinberg.]
The Republican National Committee and networks want to limit debates to the top ten presidential candidates, based on averaging polling results from five different national surveys. In a prior column, I explained how this approach is unfair because debate performance drives polls, not the other way around. Also, early national surveys are especially volatile and hardly predictive of finalists. Finally, equally averaging the apples and oranges of surveys with different size (and limited) samples, and quite varied and even dubious methodologies. produces strange vegetables indeed.
And in another column, I dissected one much publicized and deeply flawed specific national survey – the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll and showed how its results were unreliable, if not… Read More