Posted by Arnold Steinberg at 1:01 am on Jul 29, 2015 Comments Off on The First Debate/10 Days and Counting
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[Publisher’s Note: As part of an
ongoing effort to bring original, thoughtful commentary to you here
at the FlashReport, we are pleased to present this column from
Arnold Steinberg.]
Only ten candidates will participate in the first Republican
presidential debate, ten days away, hosted by Fox News in
Cleveland. The remaining six may be awarded a lesser debate, an
improvement over excluding them entirely.
The decision is based on the placement in averaging five recent
polls. It’s still unclear which polls will be selected. But we do
know that these polls have different sample sizes. Further, the
number of actual Republican registered voters likely to vote in the
primary election is only in the 150-300 range for each survey, with
a substantial margin of statistical error – perhaps plus or minus
five to eight percent, and that doesn’t even count non-sampling
error. For example, the surveys have different methodologies and
even ask the ballot question differently. Most do not even indicate
whether the candidate is a governor or senator. Reading just the
names of the sixteen candidates favors those candidates… Read More