I promised you a Big Boy Blog. Something sexier than levees and ranches…then I got emails asking whether I was going to post who is sleeping with who….nope…go to the other blogs for that crap. To be sure, I have fun with my silly titled posts…the goofy music thing…but writing this one has been anything but fun.

There’s nothing fun about adding your name to a growing list of political professionals who sense the next election may be 1994 in reverse. I write this piece from the perspective of having served as the designated “adult” on the ground during George Nethercutt’s victory over then Speaker Tom Foley. I was fortunate to have the mail contract too…but the real fun was being stationed at one of the hottest outposts of the ’94 Revolution.

The genesis of this piece starts with a Fred Barnes story detailing some of Frank Luntz’s latest analysis on voters’ emotions and their affect on vote behavior and also with a piece penned by… Read More

I had to chuckle today when I sawboth the Inland Valley Daily Bulletin and the Riverside Press-Enterprise editorially decryingpolitical parties’ involvement in local, "non-partisan" elections this November (here we go again). According to the Press Enterprise, "Local elected offices are nonpartisan for a reason. These officials handle the nuts and bolts of local government: mostly practical issues that transcend party lines." Read it here. The Daily Bulletin lamented the parties’ involvement as a "loss of political innocence" (how’s that for an oxymoron?): "We’d like to see community races stay nonpartisan, with voters evaluating candidates’ skills, experience and ideas on specific local issues rather than their political alignments." Read it here.

So let me get this straight. The single most useful piece of information that most voters rely upon… Read More

My friend and FR Blog colleague Adam Probolsky recently blogged about 5th Supervisor District hopeful Cassie DeYoung’s recent fundraiser, and noted her glaring lack of a host committee. Adam’s is correct that these are an important indicator, although by no means the only indicator, of a candidate’s depth of support.

Still, they’re a useful measurement of how seriously elected officials, community leaders and donors take a candidate.

This invite from Yorba Linda Councilman Mike Duvall is a good example. Duvall is running for termed-out Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher’s seat.

Even if one doesn’t know much about Mike Duvall in terms of record and philosophy, it is readily apparent that he is endorsed by several elected officials with strong conservative credentials, such as Supervisor Bill Campbell and Treasurer John Moorlach, and the guest speaker Senate Republican Leader Dick… Read More

I’ve been a reader of the FlashReport since its inception. I had no doubt in those early days that Jon “Do You Have My Business Card?” Fleischman was just the person to sustain such an effort over the long term…that with his contacts and drive, the FlashReport would become a daily “read” of choice by many polunkies around California.

And, yes, for those of you new to this site, what was then an e-mailed collection of news articles and opinion from across California, supplemented by Jon’s preceding commentary, became a must read, thanks to every day getting himself up two hours early and reading darn-near everything.

So, when Jon announced he was taking the FlashReport to the next level, with a website, links to the important news around California, and blogs by experienced pols and pundits, I encouraged him.

But be-jeepers, when I saw Jon’s… Read More

The rise of local Republican Party organizations with strong volunteer precinct programs has coincided with the decline of the grassroots ground capabilities of most of the Republican affiliated clubs. There could be cause and effect to some degree, but the decline of grassroots oriented clubs probably began in the mid 1990’s. Many organizations were able to bluff about their capabilities for a while (a bluff I think most GOP insiders wanted desperately to believe because there were no alternatives). Many of the clubs essentially became speaker’s bureaus or lunch clubs with a Republican affiliated theme – noble and important aspects of any community and any political party, but generally not the means of accumulation of political power. Others deteriorated to the point of meaninglessness. A fewer number continued to run viable ground organizations, or mutated into something altogether different.

Generally, I believe for a political organization to have real pull it has to be able to demonstrate either the capability of raising and spending reasonable amounts of money (examples: California Republican Assembly, New Majority, or San Diego County Lincoln… Read More

Sen. John Campbell was in Washington last week making the rounds and raising money. In a reception last Wednesday, Campbell brought in $80,000 and also found time to drop by areception hosted by Reps. Pete Sessions (TX), Mike Rogers (MI), and Jim McCrery (LA) for the top Republican challenger candidates of 2006. Each of those candidates raised over $80,000.

Vartan Djihanian, former communications director for Rep. Buck McKeon, has returned to California to serve as district director for Sen. Bill Morrow (R-Oceanside). Eventually, Vartan will move over to the campaign side and run Morrow’s campaign for Congress. Vartan got his start in 1994, while still in high school, as a volunteer on Jim Rogan’s first campaign for the State Assembly in the wake of Pat Nolan’s… Read More

While the Field Poll will generate all sorts of buzz today, here’s another set numbers that paints a different picture of the special election, courtesy of the Stanford University/Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks Internet poll.

The findings:

— Prop 74 leads, 54-47

— Prop 75 is comfortably ahead, 64-36

— Prop 76 trails, 45-55

— Prop 77 leads, 55-45

Compared to the previous Internet survey in early October, three of the four reform measures have actually grown in support. The only one that’s weakened: nope, not 76. It’s 75. Go figure.

Note: the S/H/KN poll differs from conventional telephone polls in having respondents fill out a replica of an actual ballot. The argument for this is it offers more anonymity and a closer resemblance to the choice people actually face in the voting booth.

Naturally, the polling big boys scoff at this. I’d remind them: the same Internet poll came closest to guessing Arnold’s performance in recall, the last time we had a special election.… Read More

OK, here’s my take on the Field Poll.

First, let’s put aside the emotions. We all know that Republicans love to hate the Field’s findings — the joke being that F-I-E-L-D stands for “Findings InEvitably Lean Democratic”.

But if you’re mad now, just wait until the LA Times comes out with its poll, which should be any day now. You know how much they love the guv (even though, to the Times’ credit, it’s seen the light and endorsed Props 74 and 77).

In this survey’s case, what bothers me is whether Field understands the effect that Arnold has on his own party. One stat, in particular, jumped out at me:

“Among Republicans, 51% say the Governor’s endorsement of an initiative makes them more inclined to vote, 12% are more inclined to vote no, and 37% say it would have no effect or have no opinion.”

So let’s get this straight: only half of Republicans surveyed are moved by Arnold’s message, the other half either are turned off or have tuned out? Meaning, basically, that Republicans are ambivalent toward their governor?

That… Read More