Once sitting in a hotel room …right before I was offed as Christie Whitman’s press guy (it was understood that my job was to blow myself up) Lynn Nofziger told me "that anyone who can predict the outcome of an election 6 months out is a damn fool." Now I may not be the oddest duck around…but I play one on this site….but all of this public macanations about the 50th…struck me in an odd way….and I had to post this…my crux is that I think on all political posts..by those of us with clients…we all need to be carefulof the content ofposts…period.

Following Duane’s post….and as Morrow’s guy….and in my own way…I’d like to give my take on this goofy thing.… Read More

Not to debate either Duane or Jon (see their posts below), but perhaps to "moderate."

Using Jon’s ACU ratings, Hunter scores a 92, one less than Issa. Bilbray comes in at 71. Self-described moderate Mike Castle is at 59, which our fearless FR leader describes as "considerably more to the left than Bilbray." Some, maybe many,would call Castle a liberal.

I know I went to public schools, but the difference between the scores for Castle and Bilbray is a mere 12 points. Between Bilbray and Hunter? … 21 points. If Castle is considerably to the left of Bilbray, then clearly Bilbray is significantly to the left of Hunter and Issa. But, who’s counting (besides me)?

Who, then, is the moderate? It depends on where you draw the line.

My gut indicatesthat a conservative will win the 50th … or someone who convinces the voters they are such. Any consultant worth their salt will claim their candidate fits the mold of the district.… Read More

With all due respect to Duane Dichiara, one of the FlashReport’s San Diego Correspondents,, whom I respect immensely, I am very pleased that one of the candidates for Congress has hired you. Former Congressman Brian Bilbray had the foresight to hire you, and since he is a regular reader of the FlashReport, he knows of your role with us. I would be disappointed, disclaimers included, if you did not help out your client, on occasion, with a positive post (perhaps you can talk about his lawsuit arguing how wrong it is that illegal aliens pay less tuition in California colleges than his children).

That said, I will be making great efforts to personally cover this special election as I have endorsed no candidate in the race, nor has any candidate hired me (though two have purchased ads on this site…so far). So if you have any thoughts or input on this race, by all means send them to Jantz and Dichiara (and to our DC Correspodent, Jason Roe) if you want, but please send them… Read More

The major candidates for the 50th Congressional and their teams are lining up. In this first report, I thought I’d concentrate on the “teams” which will consist of general consultants, pollsters, finance consultants, and campaign managers. I’ll update this regularly as I find out more information… if I make an error or there are changes in the line-up campaigns can simply email me and I’ll correct next time around. Consider this a “quick and dirty” version. And the required disclosure: Coronado Communications works for Bilbray. I’ll promise to be as neutral and fair as the OC guys are in the 35th!

In no particular order:

Richard Earnest. Former Mayor of Del Mar. Moderate. Team: unknown/changing

Howard Kaloogian. Former Assemblyman. Conservative. Team: consulting Russo Marsh + Rogers

Brian Bilbray. Former Congressman. Conservative. Team: consulting Tab Communications, Coronado Communications., BDPR, finance (local) Dorsee Productions & (DC) Todd Meredith

Bill Morrow. State Senator. Conservative. Team: consulting Joe Justin Company, finance (local) Lacee Beaulio, manager Vartan… Read More

[Note: I totally OWE FR Los Angeles Blogger Mike Spence now — get this, he had this breaking news much earlier than me, and had posted it up as a "draft" in our system. When I heard about this, I called him, and asked if I could put up his post. He said to go for it. One wrong button pushed, and instead of putting up his draft, I deleted it! Oops. So this is my apology to Mike, and my pennance – I had to write a post on this – but Spence gets the breaking-news nod, and he may post his analysis (again?) on the ramifications – Flash]

In 2004, the only thing that stood between ultra-liberal Adam Schiff’s re-election and retirement was Republican candidate Harry Scolinos. Scolinos would be in Congress today were in not for the horrific ‘incumbent protection plan’ that redrew this Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena House seat from one that would elect Jim Rogan into one that… Read More

[Funny when bloggers "post on top" of each other — please read Matt Cunnnigham’s post and analsysis below on this race – then you can factor in my 10 cents, along with my interview with Tran. Always full and complete coverage from the FlashReport! – Jon]

I just got off the phone with Assemblyman Van Tran, who shared with me that he has, in fact, launched an exploratory effort to gauge support for a run for State Senate in Central Orange County’s 34th District. This is the seat occupied currently by Democrat Senator Joe Dunn, who is facing term limits.

"I think that I have strong message to bring to the residents of Central Orange County – one of limited government, individual liberty and working to create economic prosperity," said Tran.

"I am very pleased that Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, as well as two very esteemed former State Chairmen of the California… Read More

There are multiple reports that Assemblyman Van tran is exploring a campaign for the 34th Senate District next year — on the Orange County Register, and the Orange Juice and OC Blog blogs.

The 34th SD dynamic is certainly heating up lately. There are persistent reports that Orange County Supervisor Lou Correa is going to jump in and duke it out with Assemblyman Tom Umberg for the Democratic nomination. I saw Supervisor Correa last week at Supervisor Chris Norby’s office Christmas party and ask him point blank if he was going to run. Lou kinda smiled and said something along the lines of "stop giving me a hard time."

The GOP has an excellent shot at taking the 34th SD. First, Republican registration efforts — generously funded by the New Majority — have made real but unheralded inroads. Currently, the Democrats have only a 1.7% registration advantages. Back when I was a young legislative… Read More

When Arnold Schwarzenegger ran in the recall election, he ran as a candidate who would stand up to the special interest groups that have been dominant in Sacramento. These special interests, largely employee unions, are pressing hard for an increase in the amount of the mandate on California employers on the minimum hourly wage that they can pay an employee. Emboldened by the defeat of the Governor’s reform package, they are pushing hard for such an increase to be a part of the Governor’s legislative agenda.

As a well-schooled libertarian, I know that Arnold Schwarzenegger is a big admirer of Nobel laureate economist Milton Friedman. This is what Friedman says about the minimum wage:… Read More