I recently was queried by the anonymous "Pete St. John," proprietor of the California Campaigns blog, asking me for six political predictions for 2006. I had some fun with it, but my answers are below. Click through to St. John’s site to see others.

I invite the FR Blog Team, as time permits, to make some predictions for 2006 on this site!

FLASH’S 2006 PREDICTIONS 1) Major political donors, outraged by the amount of their money going into the pockets of consultants, will tie their donations to assurance that the money will go to voter contact, not to the vacation homes of well-connected insiders. 2) The California State Supreme Court will throw out Proposition 22, making gay-marriage a huge issue going into the November elections. 3) Proposals for massive… Read More

While I am off on vacation, I am still trying to find fun things to post to the blog — and I couldn’t resist this article by Sarah Kershaw in today’s New York Times.. Not only because it cites the FlashReport in the opening paragraphs, but because it highlights the fact that there is still a lot of unrest and unhappiness with Gray Davis’ former Deputy Chief of Staff, Susan Kennedy, (she is also a former Executive Director of the State Democrat Party) becoming Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Chief of Staff. The Governor has stated repeatedly (and told me directly) that Kennedy has been hired to implement his vision, not the other way around. But as conservative guru Morton Blackwell says, personnel IS policy. Well, I have spoken plenty about my unhappiness and discomfort with the Kennedy hire, but check out this article. You can read the post cited in the first paragraph here.

I was having this very debate with a couple reporters at a Christmas party the other day. Who produces better journalism?: A reporter that is close to the people she covers–has relationships and knows the landscape and has institutional knowledge OR a reporter that is green, has no ties to the community and just purely reports the news?

As someone who values relationships, not because it allows manipulation (after all the green reporter is just as likely to get played) but because it breeds civility and more importantly accuracy I prefer the former.

Jean Pasco of the LA Times is one of the old school reporters who has been around since I got involved more than a dozen years ago. And she knows everyone and remembers everything. There are disadvantages to this but I still would prefer Jean cover a story that involved me or a friend rather than some easy to manipulate but ignorant runt of a reporter.

In true Probolsky style Pasco gives a cool run down of Orange County races in 06 in today’s LA Times. Only a… Read More

In October, I was stunned to announce that out of five judicial appointments to the Los Angeles County bench, four were Republicans. See it here. There were no appointments in November. In December The Governor made four appointments, three of the Democrats. My unofficial tallier has the numbers at 17 Democrats, 8 Republicans and one decline to state.

One of the reasons the Governor’s campaign will give to conservatives to support him will be the kinds of judges he will appoint. In Los Angeles County Democrats are twice as likely to be appointed than Republicans.

This month, the Gov. made appointments to the State Law Revision Commission. All Gray Davis appointees. Including LA County Dem William Weinberger. another Dem and one decline to state.… Read More

Effective January 1, 2006, a new state law will require members of local agency legislative bodies who receive any type of compensation, salary, stipend or reimbursement for actual and necessary expenses incurred in the performance of official duties to attend ethics training. The new law is codified at Government Code section 53254 and defines “local agency legislative bodies” to include the governing body of the agency (i.e., the city council, board of supervisors or board of trustees) as well as all committees, commissions, or other boards of a local agency, whether permanent or temporary and whether advisory or decision-making. Members of such bodies will be required to attend 2 hours of training every two years.

This new law may lead to some confusion because while it requires members of advisory and temporary local agency commissions to attend ethics training, state ethics laws draw distinctions between permanent decision making bodies (like city councils and planning commissions) and temporary advisory bodies (like ad hoc committees). For instance, unless a local jurisdiction’s code requires otherwise, members of purely… Read More

Some tidbits of commentary from the long weekend:

In his post below, Jon Fleischman asks if the upcoming State of the State will be good for conservatives. Here’s the San Diego Union-Tribune commentary from Monday…A defining moment Bond will show if governor has lost his way

Jan. 5 is setting up as one of the defining moments of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s time in office. That is when he is expected to unveil his proposed bond measure to pay for state infrastructure needs. If he introduces a relatively lean plan that focuses on roads and levees and that requires users and beneficiaries to help shoulder the cost – not just shovels the tab on all taxpayers – he will reassure the millions of voters who trusted him to bring fiscal responsibility to Sacramento.

But if… Read More

In 2003, Orange County’s top cop Sheriff Mike Carona started to look at a piece of legislation passed into law in the the 90’s by then-Congressman Christopher Cox (pictured to the right), who until his appointment by President Bush to head the Securities and Exchange Commission, had served as an Orange County Congressman since his election in 1988. Cox’s legislation allowed for local law enforcement officers, with proper training, to be cross-designated by the federal government with the authority to enforce national immigration laws. Keeping in mind the days when authorities used federal tax code violations to go after mafia gangsters, Sheriff Carona (pictured to the left) wondered if there was not a way to use… Read More

With each of Orange County’s seven countywide elected officials up for re-election in the June Primary I thought it would be helpful to take a look at each of the elected officials, their plans and any potential challengers.

NOTE: There are no term limits on countywide offices in Orange County.

ASSESSOR Webster Guillory has been in office since ’98. He generally avoids politics and the media. He is one of only a couple Black elected officials in Orange County. He is registered as a Decline to State. There is no hard evidence that he will see anyone challenge him in ’06. Although I was at a Christmas party last week and met a guy who works for the LA County Assessor who express interest in Webster’s job.

AUDITOR-CONTROLLER David Sundstrom was also first elected in 1998. He too stays out of the limelight. Not a peep from anyone about challenging him. He is a registered Republican.

CLERK-RECORDER Tom Daly was elected in 2002, the year he was termed out of his… Read More