SENATE GOP LEADER ACKERMAN ON 34TH SD: "THE LIKELY CANDIDATE IS LYNN DAUCHER" Yesterday it was announced that Assemblyman Van Tran (from north/central Orange County) would be forming an exploratory effort at a potential run for State Senate in the 34th District, currently held by Democrat Joe Dunn. This seat is in play because voter registration there has closed considerably (less than 2 points) thanks to the leadership of Orange County GOP Chairman Scott Baugh, and heavy financing from The New Majority, an elite GOP funding group. You can read about Tran’s efforts (along with who is helping him) here where I spoke with him, as well as more analysis from FR Orange County Correspondent Matt… Read More

From today’s National Journal:

Rep. Campbell Begins To Fill Staff Positions The House’s newest member, Rep. John Campbell, R-Calif., is settling in and recently filled staff positions in his Washington office. Jim Terry, Campbell’s campaign manager and spokesman, is now his chief of staff. Terry formerly worked for California Assembly Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, and as a National Republican Campaign Committee field representative in 2002. Before that, Terry was a caseworker in the district office of Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif. Andrew Kiefer, formerly Campbell’s legislative director in the state Senate, is now Campbell’s senior policy adviser. Campbell’s legislative director is Julie Philp, former senior legislative assistant… Read More

Once sitting in a hotel room …right before I was offed as Christie Whitman’s press guy (it was understood that my job was to blow myself up) Lynn Nofziger told me "that anyone who can predict the outcome of an election 6 months out is a damn fool." Now I may not be the oddest duck around…but I play one on this site….but all of this public macanations about the 50th…struck me in an odd way….and I had to post this…my crux is that I think on all political posts..by those of us with clients…we all need to be carefulof the content ofposts…period.

Following Duane’s post….and as Morrow’s guy….and in my own way…I’d like to give my take on this goofy thing.… Read More

Not to debate either Duane or Jon (see their posts below), but perhaps to "moderate."

Using Jon’s ACU ratings, Hunter scores a 92, one less than Issa. Bilbray comes in at 71. Self-described moderate Mike Castle is at 59, which our fearless FR leader describes as "considerably more to the left than Bilbray." Some, maybe many,would call Castle a liberal.

I know I went to public schools, but the difference between the scores for Castle and Bilbray is a mere 12 points. Between Bilbray and Hunter? … 21 points. If Castle is considerably to the left of Bilbray, then clearly Bilbray is significantly to the left of Hunter and Issa. But, who’s counting (besides me)?

Who, then, is the moderate? It depends on where you draw the line.

My gut indicatesthat a conservative will win the 50th … or someone who convinces the voters they are such. Any consultant worth their salt will claim their candidate fits the mold of the district.… Read More

With all due respect to Duane Dichiara, one of the FlashReport’s San Diego Correspondents,, whom I respect immensely, I am very pleased that one of the candidates for Congress has hired you. Former Congressman Brian Bilbray had the foresight to hire you, and since he is a regular reader of the FlashReport, he knows of your role with us. I would be disappointed, disclaimers included, if you did not help out your client, on occasion, with a positive post (perhaps you can talk about his lawsuit arguing how wrong it is that illegal aliens pay less tuition in California colleges than his children).

That said, I will be making great efforts to personally cover this special election as I have endorsed no candidate in the race, nor has any candidate hired me (though two have purchased ads on this site…so far). So if you have any thoughts or input on this race, by all means send them to Jantz and Dichiara (and to our DC Correspodent, Jason Roe) if you want, but please send them… Read More

The major candidates for the 50th Congressional and their teams are lining up. In this first report, I thought I’d concentrate on the “teams” which will consist of general consultants, pollsters, finance consultants, and campaign managers. I’ll update this regularly as I find out more information… if I make an error or there are changes in the line-up campaigns can simply email me and I’ll correct next time around. Consider this a “quick and dirty” version. And the required disclosure: Coronado Communications works for Bilbray. I’ll promise to be as neutral and fair as the OC guys are in the 35th!

In no particular order:

Richard Earnest. Former Mayor of Del Mar. Moderate. Team: unknown/changing

Howard Kaloogian. Former Assemblyman. Conservative. Team: consulting Russo Marsh + Rogers

Brian Bilbray. Former Congressman. Conservative. Team: consulting Tab Communications, Coronado Communications., BDPR, finance (local) Dorsee Productions & (DC) Todd Meredith

Bill Morrow. State Senator. Conservative. Team: consulting Joe Justin Company, finance (local) Lacee Beaulio, manager Vartan… Read More

[Note: I totally OWE FR Los Angeles Blogger Mike Spence now — get this, he had this breaking news much earlier than me, and had posted it up as a "draft" in our system. When I heard about this, I called him, and asked if I could put up his post. He said to go for it. One wrong button pushed, and instead of putting up his draft, I deleted it! Oops. So this is my apology to Mike, and my pennance – I had to write a post on this – but Spence gets the breaking-news nod, and he may post his analysis (again?) on the ramifications – Flash]

In 2004, the only thing that stood between ultra-liberal Adam Schiff’s re-election and retirement was Republican candidate Harry Scolinos. Scolinos would be in Congress today were in not for the horrific ‘incumbent protection plan’ that redrew this Burbank/Glendale/Pasadena House seat from one that would elect Jim Rogan into one that… Read More

[Funny when bloggers "post on top" of each other — please read Matt Cunnnigham’s post and analsysis below on this race – then you can factor in my 10 cents, along with my interview with Tran. Always full and complete coverage from the FlashReport! – Jon]

I just got off the phone with Assemblyman Van Tran, who shared with me that he has, in fact, launched an exploratory effort to gauge support for a run for State Senate in Central Orange County’s 34th District. This is the seat occupied currently by Democrat Senator Joe Dunn, who is facing term limits.

"I think that I have strong message to bring to the residents of Central Orange County – one of limited government, individual liberty and working to create economic prosperity," said Tran.

"I am very pleased that Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, as well as two very esteemed former State Chairmen of the California… Read More