Cash on hand. It’s king right now. And in partisan races, the 3rd house is looking to see who still has the dinero to play in the final few days of the campaign. So I would argue the market drives ‘flubbing’ real COH totals.

Here is a fun game. Find a slate mailer disclosure. Find a candidate who shows a payment. Go back to the candidate’s website and see if the payment is there, or if it is accrued. Hint: in the name of showing more cash on hand there are quite a few that just ‘slipped through the cracks."

Game number 2. Find a candidate. Go back in past records and see how much their political consultant is getting paid every month. Then see if that consultant shows up in the most recent candidate disclosure for April and May. How odd… are consultants suddenly working for free, or did some more bills ‘slip through the cracks."

Bonus game. This requires you be local. Collect each mailing a given candidate mails out before the disclosure due date and pin them to the wall. Look up postage and/or mail house and/or consulting firm payments and see if they match.

Hey, I’ll be the first to admit… Read More

To Build or not to build? That is the question. This June primaryalso features elections in Torrance. Development seems to be the issue as voters decide if a couple of hundred condos mean the end of the world as we know it. See a profile on all nine candidates for city council here.Personally I hope Rod Guyton, a former CRA VP is elected, but you have to love the guy who wants to build an auto tack in Torrance and annex neighboring Lomita.… Read More

As we close in on the final days of the Democratic primary for Governor, it is becoming quite the pro-tax fest as both Angelides and Westly seek to out-do each other on defining a larger, more expansive role for State Government that their opponent. There are a number of pieces in the news today that analyze the race — an L.A. Times poll now has Angelides and Westly in a dead heat. My take on the race is that Angelides has one thing going for him — I believe that voter turnout on both sides of the aisle will be low. If this is the case, then the core Democratic vote will be made up primary of true liberal believers and union-workers who turnout in all elections. These two groups will tend to favor Phil Angelides, who is a more traditional liberal candidates, and who sports the endorsement of the California Democratic Party. I’ve chosen to highlight the analysis today in the SDUT by veteran political reporter John Marelius — you may want to check it out. FR friend Dan Weintraub has an interesting column in the Sacramento Bee today that highlights one aspect of Governor Schwarzenegger’s budget about which he is unimpressed … Read More

As we close in on the final days of the Democratic primary for Governor, it is becoming quite the pro-tax fest as both Angelides and Westly seek to out-do each other on defining a larger, more expansive role for State Government that their opponent. There are a number of pieces in the news today that analyze the race — an L.A. Times poll now has Angelides and Westly in a dead heat. My take on the race is that Angelides has one thing going for him — I believe that voter turnout on both sides of the aisle will be low. If this is the case, then the core Democratic vote will be made up primary of true liberal believers and union-workers who turnout in all elections. These two groups will tend to favor Phil Angelides, who is a more traditional liberal candidates, and who sports the endorsement of the California Democratic Party. I’ve chosen to highlight the analysis today in the SDUT by veteran political reporter John Marelius — you may want to check it out. FR friend Dan Weintraub has an interesting column in the Sacramento Bee today that highlights one aspect of Governor Schwarzenegger’s budget about which he is unimpressed … Read More

Vargas’ Double-Edged Sword… Assemblyman Juan Vargas can’t gain a bit of traction in what is becoming a flailing attempt to unseat Congressman Bob Filner (Dem primary in CD 51). Vargas is running some inanely cartoonishTV ads trying to tie Filner to Duke Cunningham…some of the worst spots I’ve ever seen. Filner may be as liberal as they come, but no one in this strongly Democratic district is buying he’s a crook as well. Alternatively, Filner’s ads compellingly tie Vargas to the insurance industry, with victims of the Cedar Fire saying that Vargas sold them out for an ounce of silver. This all follows the early March Union-Trib expose on the Vargas-Insurance connection.

This past week, Matt Potter in the San Diego Reader nails Vargas’ perception problems in one blurb, writing that… Read More

After several judicial decisions that involved issues about multi-lingual ballots at the Ninth Circuit, the recall of two of three Pro-Wal-Mart council memebrs is on! See the article here.Unions initially started the drive against Wal-Mart, but it now being used by up amd coming politicians to take out the "old Guard". Mayor Jay Imperial is a good Republican. See previous posts startinghere.

I do hope to see everyone at the Rosemead Wal-Mart grand opening this fall–regardeless of recall outcome.… Read More

Independent expenditures have started in races throughout San Diego County. In AD77 the California Republican Assembly spent $15,000 in mail for Anderson, and the local Deputy Sheriff’s Association spent $1,000 to purchase a slate for Dale. In AD78 the local Deputy Sheriff’s Association spent $1,000 to purchase a slate for Horton. In AD74 CAP-MPT spent $17,000 in mail for Garrick.

Side Note: Thank you to fellow blogger Barry Jantz for bringing the AD77 Beecham filing issue to our attention. It is in the process of being corrected right now – but in the interests of full disclosure Barry was correct in that the treasurer reported some of Beecham’s expenditures as independent expenditures so they are listed electronically for the moment in that column.… Read More

Here’s the money story for 3/18-5/20in the five-way GOP scramble to assume the mantle from Assemblyman Jay La Suer:

Joel Anderson Contributions: $39,353 Expenditures: $111,097 Cash on Hand: $70,003

Nancy Beecham No report filed on-line (yet?)

Debbie Beyer Contributions: $27,210 Expenditures: $86,958 Cash on Hand: $25,505

Jack Dale Contributions: $45,663 Expenditures: $51,955 Cash on Hand: $75,587

Bill Jenkin Contributions: $6,875 Expenditures: $33,499 Cash on Hand: $39,700

Short of a "June Surprise" from Nancy Beecham (I’ll get to that in a sec), is this race coming down to a Dale and Anderson sprint to the finish? It appears so. Anderson’s big $111k of expenditures in the last few weeks is going to direct voter contact, no question. Beyer’sfairly significant $87kin expenditures seems… Read More