On Sunday when I last posted on AD77 I missed a few relevant facts in my analysis which I’d be remiss in not posting. Based for the most part on cash on hand, but also on some earlier polling, and the amount of mail in the box, I’d narrowed the race to Dale (Wainio/local), Anderson (Nygren), and Beecham (Coronado). Turns out Beyer (Justin) dropped a fair barrage of mail that I missed in my pile o’ mail, and raised enough money since disclosure to put her campaign as much in the game as any of the other three. So in short this thing is basically a toss-up, with former Santee Mayor Jack Dale perhaps having a marginal lead. If campaigns send me mail, I’ll post the most entertaining of it in my next post.… Read More

This weekend only! Special limited offer! No reasonable offer will be refused!

My firm is going to conduct a statewide poll this week and I am offer Flash Report readers the chance to propose questions that you would pose to the California voters.

So send your most creative, interesting, inflammatory (I like them the most) questions that no other pollster has bothered to ask and I will consider adding them to our poll. The results will be released next week.

Don’t limit yourself think politics, public policy, pop culture or whatever! We once asked which voters prefer, a candidate with hair or a candidate who is bald…We have also asked who voters would rather date their daughter from among a list of well know celebrities…

Email me at adam@flashreport.org or give me a call (949) 855-6400. Question suggestions will be kept confidential unless you want to the publicity in which case we’ll make sure you get it if we use your question(s).… Read More

I know there are some thatwill readthis in disbelief. CRA has endorsed Bill Hauf in the primary for the 50th CD and I stand by that endorsement. CRA Fed Pacspent about $70,000 to stop Bilbray from getting the GOP Primary nod. What should a conservative do in the June special election run-off? Bilbray has voted to give money to Planned Parenthood, gone to the Clinton White House to celebrate gun control and voted for bigger government spending, albeit sponsored by the so-called GOP Leadership. Some conservatives are tempted to take a walk or vote for a third party candidate to punish the House or Bilbray for their past deeds. Believe me, I understand that sentiment. I met with Brian Bilbray for over an hour last week and asked serious questions about his record and plans. If he wins I hope he will vote better on these and other issues. … Read More

Today’s feature column is an important piece on why Californian’s should vote No on Proposition 82, liberal Hollywood producer/actor Rob Reiner’s latest attempt to create government bureaucracy. This is the measure that would increase state taxes and take the funds and create a government-run preschool system. Zaremberg makes some great points about how Prop. 82 simply is poor public policy.

NON-PROFIT RATES PROFITABLE FOR LACY I also took the opportunity to feature and interesting story in today’s Sacramento Bee. The article focuses on my good friend Jim Lacy, who is a prominent political law attorney in Orange County. Well, to be more accurate, the article focuses on how some people are upset that Lacy helps non-profit groups put out informational mailings that contain information on political candidates – for like 40% off the going rate for postage! How does this work? Well, read the article. I found it… Read More

One of the hottest legislative primaries in the state has evolved into a close contest with heavy involvement from PACs flooding mailboxes with hit pieces. Sixty-Fifth Assembly District Republican primary candidates are seeing themselves painted in unflattering colors by PACs like the West Valley Young Republicans and the “Committee Against Corruption”. The WVYRs have spent $104,000 so far on independent expenditures (by Meridian Pacific) opposing San Jacinto Councilman Jim Ayres ($42,000), Yucca Valley Mayor Paul Cook ($35,000) and Hemet Mayor Robin Lowe ($35,000), while supporting Banning Councilwoman Brenda Salas ($30,000). The Upland-based Committee Against Corruption has spent $55,000 on the services of Delta Partners opposing Ayres. See the San Bernardino County Sun’s coverage from yesterday.

One might ask why Mayor Cook, a retired Marine colonel with a ballot title that says so, has started to draw fire. As a matter of fact, probably the biggest paradigm shift since my last… Read More

Today’s feature column is an important piece on why Californian’s should vote No on Proposition 82, liberal Hollywood producer/actor Rob Reiner’s latest attempt to create government bureaucracy. This is the measure that would increase state taxes and take the funds and create a government-run preschool system. Zaremberg makes some great points about how Prop. 82 simply is poor public policy.

NON-PROFIT RATES PROFITABLE FOR LACY I also took the opportunity to feature and interesting story in today’s Sacramento Bee. The article focuses on my good friend Jim Lacy, who is a prominent political law attorney in Orange County. Well, to be more accurate, the article focuses on how some people are upset that Lacy helps non-profit groups put out informational mailings that contain information on political candidates – for like 40% off the going rate for postage! How does this work? Well, read the article. I found it… Read More

Cash on Hand in the last days of a campaign is crucial. There has been a lot of focus on what thedollar figure is in different races.Brad Mitzelfelt writes about the war in the 65th AssemblyDistrict below. (if too lazy to scroll down, click here). A good piece. The reason it caught my attention was the over $200,000 COH that Jim Ayres had.

CRA is supporting another candidate, Brenda Salas. So, I looked at those reports earlier. To me it looks like over $100,000 of Ayres money CAN"T be used in the primary, because it was raised for the general election.

The way campaign finance law works in California, a donor can max out to candidate in the primaryAND the general election. Of course they CAN’T spend it until then. For candidates assured nomination like Poochigian or McPherson it is no big deal, but in a contested primary it is.

Many candidates do this to inflate their fundraising numbers. It isn’t wrong, but when a candidate says they have X amount of money in the bank, you have to… Read More

66th Assembly Candidate Brenda Salas has run a great campaign. For this former Congressman Joe Baca staffer to have re-made herself as a fierce opponent of illegal immigration, considering she was a top aide for “Open Borders Joe” has been a beautiful thing to watch. Picking up the endorsement of former State Senator Dick Mountjoy was frosting on the cake. Salas has even sold herself as a true Reagan Republican which in itself is amazing considering that she is too young to have even been a part of any Reagan campaign. Even more amazing is when she did become politically of age, she made a b-line to be a Democrat, yet she still considers herself a Reaganite. Like I said,hats off to Brenda and her campaign team. It has been an amazing campaign to watch. I think this is too close to call for next Tuesday and may go into absentee ballot overtime

… Read More