As I was mulling over my thoughts this morning about yesterday’s election, the future of the gubernatorial campaign and whether or not I should have a third cup of coffee, Gov. Schwarzenegger’s campaign manager Steve Schmidt submitted to Jon Fleishman (I like to call him Fleishman but I think he prefers Jon) a statement about the “choice” voters will have this Fall. http://www.flashreport.org/blog.php?authID=2005091211084825

Here’s what I began writing earlier this morning…

“Choice.” We’ll be hearing that word a lot between now and November not only from RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman on the talking head shows as he reminds the MSM that elections are local not national in nature but from Team Arnold as they campaign against Phil Angelides.

I imagine Gov. Schwarzenegger’s campaign will focus on the choice between a candidate like Phil who promises to raise taxes vs. a candidate like Arnold who not only managed to significantly reduce the deficit and sign two budgets into law without raising taxes but who rescinded

Updated: 7:00 p.m.

Tuesday’selection in San Bernardino County was characterized by a staggeringly low voter turnout, despite the dogged efforts of many campaigns to stir voters’ interest. Countywide, voter turnout was abysmal at 21.97%. Democratic turnout narrowly exceeded that of Republicans because of several competitive legislative and statewide primaries.

The highest profile candidate in the county, Board of Supervisors Chairman Bill Postmus, is running for the countywide office of Assessor. While he made a strong showing with 46.2 percent of the vote, he wasn’t able to avoid a runoff against 12-year incumbent Donald Williamson, who received 33.68 percent of the vote. The main factor forcing a runoff was the presence of two additional candidates on the ballot. Two appraisers from the Assessor’s office filed papers to run after the incumbent had announced his retirement. But when Williamson filed for re-election at the last minute, it was too late for his two subordinates to get out of the race. The result: Williamson’s underlings pulled almost 20 percent of the vote, making a… Read More

This morning, Steve Schmidt, the Governor’s Campaign Manager, released the following exlusive statement to the FlashReport in response to yesterday’s election results:

Today, Governor Schwarzenegger will kick off the general election campaign by traveling through California and talking to voters about his vision for moving California forward. The Governor’s optimistic, hopeful campaign stands in stark contrast to Phil Angelides’ Democratic primary campaign of anger, negativity and policies that would set California back. Now is the time when California voters will begin to see even more sharply the clear choice they will have in November. It will be a choice between the pessimism and typical politics of Phil Angelides, and the bold leadership of Governor Schwarzenegger. … Read More

Orange County had no Congressional contests…

Orange County State Senate races included just one to speak of…the 34th Dem Primary with Assemblyman Tom Umberg v. County Supervisor Lou Correa. Correa won with an 18% margin. Correa owes a big thank you to Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata. This means Republicans get another shot at taking back Correa’s sup seat sometime next year in a Special Election. Correa will face off against Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher who won the GOP nomination.

Orange County State Assembly races included GOP Primaries in the 72nd (Duvall a GBWA client trounced Siminoff a Nygren client). In the 67th (Silva a GBWA client beat McGill and Harman a Coronado Communications client).

In the 69th Dem Primary (Solorio won with a HUGE margin over Alvarez).

OC Treasurer John Moorlach won a seat on the county board of supervisors. Former Assemblywoman Pat Bates fought off a over 2.5 MILLION dollars to be the top vote getter over her very wealthy self-funded opponent.

Sheriff Mike Carona pulled off a 50.9% victory over three rivals. This is an impressive win for the consulting team of Sen. John Lewis… Read More

Big congratulations to Sacto based political consultant Tab Berg for his win with retired Marine Colonel/Town of Yucca Valley Mayor Paul Cook in the GOP Primary for the 65th AD.

I was Cook’s pollster and have been proud to work for Col. Cook–a true American Hero.

A funny piece of full disclosure–before signing on to do the polling for Cook I had made a financial contribution to one of Cook’s opponents–Jim Ayres. It was at the urging of a friend, I had never met San Jacinto Councilman Ayres.

So while I am confident my polling was good and accurate and helped Tab develop strategy and targeting, I guess you could say Cook won despite me.

Note: I disclosed my contribution to the Cook campaign before being hired and we agreed it didn’t make a difference and it didn’t.… Read More

I’ve checked the parking lot a few times today at Richvale Elementary and NOBODY is showing up to vote. I’m very concerned that Nor Cal voters are not engaged. Phil and Steve are boring my voters to death! Oh, wait a minute……. er, I forgot, Richvale, Pop. 250,is now entirely a mail-in precinct as its not populated enough. Oh well,SNL’sGilda RadnerwouldhaveEmilyLitella say"Never mind!"… Read More

The RNC sent out a blast email this afternoon taking credit for CD 50. I’ll leave it to the folks on the ground in this district to comment on how effective the RNC has been in helping Bilbray win tonight (I’m assuming he wins). Interestingly, the RNC doesn’t take credit for Busby’s major gaffe of saying people without papers can vote, which is probably the real reason she’s going to lose tonight. In my experience, the RNC has never understood California politics. But again, I leave it to the experts like our own Duane Dichiara and Phil Paule to comment.

“Although the political climate has been unfavorable, the RNC working in tandem with the NRCC has effectively implemented the strategy and resources necessary for Republicans to keep pace with a highly motivated Democrat base. Specifically, the RNC’s implementation of the 72-hour program and the NRCC’s significant investment of resources, have made a discernable impact on the elections and are producing tangible results”

Among other things the RNC takes credit for:

• RNC has organized the deployment of 160 volunteers who are now on the ground in Southern California.

•… Read More

Boating Day!

Er, uh, I mean, Voting Day! But I went boating instead along the Sacramento River with some oppo researchers who are near and dear to my heart, since I already cast my absentee ballot last week.And because thiselection is so utterly boring.

Greg Lucas, who reports for the San Francisco Chronicle, has this to say on the SF Chron blog about absentee ballots.

How low can we go? Absentee ballot returns down The prediction is for a record low turnout today, and judging from the return of absentee ballots so far that forecast may turn out to be dead on.

Though Monday, 4.3 million voters received absentee ballots — nearly 29 percent of California’s 15 million eligible voters. More than 2.6 million voters received ballots automatically by asking their county to designate them permanent absentee voters.

In some counties, more than half the eligible voters received ballots in the mail. Sonoma County mailed ballots to 55 percent of its voters. Alameda mailed to 41 percent of its voters. San Francisco 32 percent.

However return rates have been low.

Statewide,… Read More