For die-hard FlashReport politicos, I thought I would take a few minutes and walk you through “Jon’s Guide to Republican Primaries” – a “cheat sheet” of sorts – with some predictions on my part on what promises to be a very low turnout election (thanks Fabian!)…

I should add for the vast majority of FR readers who are not “insiders” – this column might be a bit hard to digest. There is a facet of our readership who “lives” this stuff, and will appreciate all of this. They are the intended audience for this piece.

First and foremost, and this may go without saying, there are no incumbents that are up for re-election this year to Congress, Senate or the Assembly who are facing a serious primary challenger. So you can check all of those legislators off of the list.

THE UNCONTESTED (OR PRACTICALLY UNCONTESTED)… Read More

With all the many candidates chasing few voters today, it brings to mind how interesting our traditional June primary could’ve been if our entire primary was today. Senator Clinton and Obama could have spent a ton of money in CA the last few weeks instead of a pittance in February’s term limit exten….I mean "presidential primary" election, not to mention the entertainment value of their hard fought effort to get all of CA’s delegates at this time.

We coulda been relevant! Would’ve helped our election vendors economy here too. Think of "all that revenue the state has lost" andat a time when the drumbeat for feesand taxes is getting louder because of our messed up budget…but hey, we know that the $90 million taxpayerspaid for a third election this year won’t be missed and will really help make the case for a subsequent term limit proposition to be embraced by the public! Meanwhile all you poll checkers, try to stay awake today, and thanks again Prop 93!… Read More

For die-hard FlashReport politicos, I thought I would take a few minutes and walk you through “Jon’s Guide to Republican Primaries” – a “cheat sheet” of sorts – with some predictions on my part on what promises to be a very low turnout election (thanks Fabian!)…

I should add for the vast majority of FR readers who are not “insiders” – this column might be a bit hard to digest. There is a facet of our readership who “lives” this stuff, and will appreciate all of this. They are the intended audience for this piece.

First and foremost, and this may go without saying, there are no incumbents that are up for re-election this year to Congress, Senate or the Assembly who are facing a serious primary challenger. So you can check all of those legislators off of the list.

THE UNCONTESTED (OR… Read More

Today Secretary of State Debra Bowen announced that several more ballot measures have qualified for November, including the Protect Marriage Constitutional Amendment.

Already qualified are:

Human Rights For Poultry More Bonds 1: Children’s Hospitals More Bonds 2: The Superduper Speedy Train (for those actually can use it) Parental Notification before a minor has abortion surgery Sentencing of Non-Violent Offenders Safe Neighborhoods (anti-gang) "Renewable" (Code for More Costly) Energy Requirements

Coming soon is the likely qualification of the Common Cause/Schwarzenegger redistricting measure…

(h/t to Shane G. at the SacBee)… Read More

I got an email today from my friend Tim Rosales letting me know that Marcia Tookey passed away.

I didn’t know Marcia Tookey for the entire time she was active in politics. You see, by the late date of my birth in 1970 she was already an established volunteer in Los Angeles, during the glory days. She was a tireless organizer of precincts, and more important she had a working knowledge of the county of LA as a whole, almost quite literally precinct by precinct. She knew where the phone banks could be found, where you couldn’t walk, and who was reliable or not.She was one of the handfull of people who remembered the organizational methods of the previous years, and was willing to teach them. Her lessons made a huge difference in my professional life.

Marciaknew the details that made the difference between a GOTV program that works and one that doesn’t. In 2000 I was field director for victory 2000 and (before campaign finance "reform") we had established some two dozen staffed local offices in LA for various party programs, including the traditional election day push. Like a fool, I had centralized the printing of the election day… Read More

OK, just to be clear, this is not internet gambling, just a chance for political prognosticators to dazzles us with their brilliance. Winner does, however, get dinner at Mikuni…

Pick your winner and post in comments (I threw SD 3 for the entertainment of the many who have suffered from a Migden tirade).

Although I am doing a number of SoCal races, I will leave to my fellow bloggers to post a competition there!

CD 4: McClintock/Ose/Terbolizard/Jones

SD 3: Leno/Midgen/Nation SD 12: Denham/Perata (recall)

AD 3: Logue/Horne AD 10: Sander/Hegyi/Sieglock AD 15: Llyod/Kamena/Rau/Wilson

Placer Board of Supervisors: Kranz/Houston

El Dorado Board of Supervisor District 1: Dorr/Knight/Norris/Frentzen El Dorado Board of Supervisor District 2: Nutting/Michelin/Teresi/Dean/ Turnboo/Smiley

Mayor of Sacramento: Fargo/Johnson/Daniel/Eldredge/Jones/Padilla/Strand.

Tie Breaker #1: % Statewide Turnout by party Tie Breaker #2: % of Denham win over recall… Read More

A: A cartoon like this in your local paper –a pretty clear sign you’ve been able to get your message out.

… Read More

Last week the Field Poll released the results of a survey about the recent California Supreme Court homosexual marriage ruling. According to the Field Poll, 51% of Californians “support” homosexual marriage. Now any political veteran knows that you can make a poll say whatever you want based on the phrasing of the questions posed. From what I’ve read, the Field Poll didn’t release the questions it posed to obtain the 51% approval rating for homosexual marriage. But another poll conducted late last week found the exact opposite of the Field Poll.

Released just this morning, ccAdvertising announced the results of a poll that directly contradicts the Field Poll. According to ccAdvertising, when asked the question “Do you agree that only marriage between one man and one woman should be legal and binding in America?” California respondents answered "Yes" 56.20%, and "No" 43.80%.

The company explained that "the survey was completed in one 24-hour period ending at 7:00 p.m on May 30, 2008, with 528 California respondents and was statistically balanced by… Read More