Today the Republican Party here in California is at a crossroads.

We watched from here in the Golden State while the GOP’s brand name was severely damaged by a Republican President and Senate and House majorities earlier this decade, when with GOP control, our party “presided” over growth in the size and scope of the federal government. Credibility is now an issue for our party, because our rhetoric did not match our actions.

Today, on a holiday weekend, on Valentine’s Day no less, at night, the State Legislature will gather in the State Capitol to vote on a state budget deal that is really, really bad news for California taxpayers and their families – the center point of this place is $14.8 billion in new taxes (more like $70 billion in new taxes over five years if all of the taxpayer-pain envisioned in this plan comes to fruition). I won’t spend time in this column blasting away at the poor policy reasons to oppose this plan, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, Jon Coupal with the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and John Kabateck with the National… Read More

Ben Zycher responds to Genest in Round IV.

I will jump in here to say, again, that with all of these VERY REAL concerns about the cap being expressed by a noted conservative economist, isn’t it time to put on the breaks? Genest is a great guy, but it doesn’t change the fact that his office is under strong pressure to pass this "Big Five Big Taxes" budget deal… Zycher’s responses (he is responded to Genest’ points here): 1. Mr. Genest continues to insist that there would be no transfers from (or reduced transfers to) the BSF after 2010-11, unless the governor decides that there is a need to "cover a current services budget." Therefore, there will be such transfers from the BSF to the general fund as long as the governor decides that there is a "need." And "population plus inflation," as I noted earlier, is far more elastic that Mr. Genest is willing to admit, so that the current services baseline in reality will… Read More

Freshman Assemblyman (and fellow FR blogger) Curt Hagman released the following statement about his stance on the staggering new tax increases in the budget proposal:

“California’s economy is in shambles. Businesses, jobs and taxpayers keep leaving the state. According to the Employment Development Department (EDD), on January 1, 2009 there are 184,500 (8%) more employees on the government payroll than on January 1, 2001. Over those same eight years, private sector employment is up only 33,600 (0.2%).This means that the public sector accounts for 85 percent of the overall growth in California over the last eight years.

Even before an estimated $6.4 billion in business tax increases from last year’s budget, California employers already paid taxes that were 20 percent more than the national average. The national population of millionaire households grew by 5.9% in 2007, Los Angeles County lost about 7000 of these households. Orange and San Diego Counties lost millionaire households as well.

Maricopa County in neighboring Arizona gained 23,000 new millionaire households in the same time period. Why? Arizona’s top marginal… Read More

This just in from Grover Norquist, Prsident of Americans for Tax Reform…

State Senator Dave Cox, who has been talked about as one of three potential AYE votes for the $14++ billion tax package, has apparently filed some amendments at the desk to the Big Five Big Tax plan. Contents of those amendments? UNKNOWN.

That said, Senators Dave Cogdill and Roy Ashburn are presumably ready to support the package. Coincidentally, the two of them are off of the floor right now.

So all eyes are now on the Sacramento Area Senator — Cox.

In the meantime, is there enough solidarity in the Assembly Republican Caucus not to JAM the process. We’ll see how this goes!

As Drudge would report… Developing…… Read More

3:30 PM Update: The Governor’s Office has responded to Zycher’s observations below, and that response can be found here.

As we rush speedily into a vote tonight on a "Big-5" produces budget plan that includes nearly $15 billion in assorted tax increases, one of the major "concessions" that is in the plan, to "sweeten it" for GOP support is the placing of a Spending Limit Initiative on the ballot (though we note that the Limit, if it passes, also extends the tax increases).

One of the policy experts on economics and state finances that I look to in this area is Dr. Benjamin Zycher of the Pacific Research Institute. Zycher was asked by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association to review the final language.

… Read More

UPDATE: Well, it’s not news. But if you are looking for something to do, click here and look to the bottom of the right hand column. You’ll see Dave Cox mentioned…

Well it would appear that the State Legislature is going to meet into the wee hours.

Conventional wisdom seems to be that in the Assembly, Republicans Villines, Adams and Niello are set to go up on $14 billion++ in tax increases. In the Senate, Republicans Cogdill and Ashburn seem ready to go up on the taxes, but the third vote is being elusive. It belongs to State Senator Dave Cox who is the only other Senate Republican who has not make it clear he is opposing the plan.

Currently Cox is proposing an amendment concerning how Proposition 10 monies are reallocated (a pet issue of his). Apparently Cox has a whole boatload of amendments, and I suspect that one of them… Read More

Mike Genest, Governor Schwarzenegger’s Director of Finance has offered this response to Dr. Zycher’s concerns about the Spending Limit Initiative language in the current "Big 5" deal: Dr. Benjamin Zycher made five observations regarding the budget stabilization fund contained within the current budget agreement. In response to his “observations,” I offer five factual statements. Zycher observed: The degree to which the estimated revenue projection trend and the Budget Stabilization Fund would operate actually to limit general-fund spending is not clear.

Incorrect. The governor could not simply suspend the transfer of revenues into the new rainy-day fund. While Article XVI Section 20 (e) of the state constitution currently allows governors to suspend the… Read More