It’s only a matter of time before Senator Abel Maldonado breaks caucus ranks and goes up on the budget, providing the third needed GOP vote. In his words, there are "no sweeteners," as of yet, but that is presently being worked out. Ain’t politics grand?

My prediction: It will be over tonight.

Once the respective party leaders realized there was no longer any hope for an aye vote out of Senator Dave Cox, the focus turned to Maldonado. Sometime after the Senate recessed late this morning, emissaries went to his office to grab him for discussions. Unlike the Assembly in lockdown on the Floor, the Senate was in an honor system situation, but Maldonado couldn’t be located and his office was locked with the lights out. The knocking on the office door went to no avail.

What’s more, a search of the Capitol garage indicated his car was gone. The buzz quickly spread that the shrewd Maldo was hiding out, knowing the longer no one could find him, the more he could up the ante with "sweeteners."

Yet, sometimes all the conspiracy theories in the world amount to nothing. The Senator had not left the… Read More

In the so-far-unsuccessful quest to find enough Republican votes to pass the budget monstrosity, the focus has been on termed-out legislators. One would assume that the reasoning for this is that these members won’t be seeking re-election in two or four years and therefore voting to raise constituents’ taxes won’t come up in a campaign. But what about any future campaigns for higher office? Are these lawmakers the rare breed that has no ambition for higher offices?

Even if they’re satisfied with their “service” thus far, maybe these members should be worried about even finishing the current term. When word leaked that Senator Abel Maldonado might be caving on the budget vote, a web site was purchased with the address RecallMaldonado.com. Considering the success of past recalls for mismanaging the state government, Senator Maldonado might want to reconsider voting for this particular tax-increasing budget. As of this post, RecallAshburn.com was still available…

Registrant: MAPA Strategies

5235 Mission Oaks Blvd Suite 1000 Camarillo,… Read More

Word is Senator Maldonado has cut a deal, and the Senate Republicans are being briefed on it momentarily… Read More

With the State Senate adjourning for the night, a $14.4-billion package of outrageous tax hikes remains precariously close to passage. This got me thinking about how good a thing it is that California doesn’t have certain tools the federal government has.

Things like simple-majority legislative approval for tax increases, or its own currency. With control of money supply, the feds are currently preparing to try to spend our way out of a recession with money they don’t have. Of course California has tried that, in a way, by borrowing just to get by. This has resulted in postponing structural reforms to the point that California’s tainted credit will limit further borrowing.

So what other options does California have? Well, there’s tax increases, which are only an option when approved by the voters or two-thirds of the Legislature. Yet even the federal government realizes that increasing taxes can have destructive effects on a weakened economy.

The other tool California government still has is budgetary and governance reform. If state leaders had the will – inspired by the threat of bankruptcy perhaps – they could fundamentally… Read More

Don’t know for sure what is happening right now, but word is the Dems are asking for reconsideration on everything. They may be pulling off the deal, or it may just be the procedural requirement to adopt the new deal language, I don’t know yet, but I am sure we will find out soon.

As for the comments of Mike Der Manouel, I understand Assemblyman Villines concern. It is extraordinarily difficult to be a Republican Leader under these circumstances. I feel for both Cogdill and Villines, both of whom I like and respect. This deal, however, is a game of chicken. The two cars are racing toward each other, and the winner will be the one with the most nerves. The Dems will not let the state go bankrupt, they can’t. Their constituency groups cannot afford what will happen if all the union contracts are reopened, and deals negotiated. The Dems have a lot more to lose than the Reps if things go bad.

That being said, no one is reinforcing the "stand tough" stance for those leaders. They are walking into this gunfight (to mix my metaphors) with a sling shot. Even Republican budget staff is saying they have no choice but to raise… Read More

I’ve only been able to talk to Villines staffers and they tell me that his about face on the tax issue is directly related to a fear of the State going bankrupt. He is said to have a "moral conviction" against this happening.

Obviously, this is a very big miscalculation on his part. Whatever "reforms" there are in this budget will be short lived, the taxes won’t, and bankruptcy, at this stage is the best possible option and the only way the State gets its obligations and spending under control.

I would, if given the opportunity, strenously argue that bankruptcy is the only true moral option at the point, as it will in fact save the State in the long term.

This whole thing is sickening. I can’t believe we are being played ……. AGAIN.… Read More

Mike Genest, Governor Schwarzenegger’s Director of Finance has offered this response to Dr. Zycher’s concerns about the Spending Limit Initiative language in the current "Big 5" deal: Dr. Benjamin Zycher made five observations regarding the budget stabilization fund contained within the current budget agreement. In response to his “observations,” I offer five factual statements. Zycher observed: The degree to which the estimated revenue projection trend and the Budget Stabilization Fund would operate actually to limit general-fund spending is not clear.

Incorrect. The governor could not simply suspend the transfer of revenues into the new rainy-day fund. While Article XVI Section 20 (e) of the state constitution currently allows governors to suspend the… Read More

Anthony York over at Capitol Weekly is reporting that there is unrest amongst Republicans as a result of this "Big-5, Big Taxes" deal.

I typically refrain from commenting on legislative caucus politics, and will continue to do so. But I will continue to express a high degree of frustration that seemingly overnight, the position of Republican leadership went from "taxes are terrible and we completely oppose them" to "taxes are terrible but not having them is more terrible and now we support them."

My overwhelming feeling is one of disappointment at this situation, and that our leaders are going "maverick" when their caucuses overwhelmingly oppose the tax increases.

Again, I am not trying to be critical of Cogdill and Villines as individuals — they are both good people. But I do feel that the "art of the deal" is supplanting the "team" concept that is so important to achieving long-term success.

I do hope that part of the… Read More