Assembly District 5 (R-Niello, open 2010) is a largely suburban Sacramento seat, and was previously represented by former Republican Leader, now State Senator, Dave Cox. There is lots of chatter amongst the political class about AD5, and whether recent registration trends have moved the seat from ‘Safe Republican’ to ‘Swing’.

Let’s start with the numbers. In 2004 the registration by party was 44.44% Republican, 37.5% Democrat, 13.61% Decline to State. In 2009 the numbers are 38.77% Republican, 37.90% Democrat, and 19.03% Decline to State. Thus, the seat is nearing a ‘push’ on partisan registration. However, I think it’s useful to look a little past of the top of the line numbers. Virtually all of the movement occurred during the 2007-2008 cycle (2 Democrat points up in this period, 2 Decline to State points up, and 3.5 points of GOP slippage). It could be argued – and I think Republicans hope – that this was largely the result of the national surge of Obamism, and the lack of a funded McCain campaign in California, and that new registration results should on the natural favor Republicans if they can… Read More

Proposition 13 says that your property tax cannot go up more than 2% per year no matter how high inflation is. Since 1978 inflation has usually been over 2% so that incremental property tax increase has become routine. In both 1999 and 2004, the Consumer Price Index grew less than 2%, so the property assessments and taxes went up by the actual amount for those years, 1.85% and 1.86% respectively.

But what has never happened is for inflation to be less than 0%. Never until now. While the year for the CPI calculation runs to October, right now this year is running negative. If in these economic times prices decline over the entire year, then the official CPI index will be negative for the first time in the history of Proposition 13.

So each of us property owners should see a small yet real decline in property taxes. Right? Not so fast– the taxacrats are working on legal arguments to claim that a negative CPI change does not require a property tax change. Since this has never happened before and has not been addressed by the Legislature or the Board of Equalization, any decision will provoke some real controversy.

I believe… Read More

As I prepare to write articles and blogs every week, I often Google various subjects to help research my topic. Perhaps, like me, you’ve noticed that too often, the majority of the results are liberal blogs. Now that the Internet has become the primary source of information in our time, it’s imperative that conservatives counter this influx of disinformation with the truth. The only way to do that is to provide our own content online.

Recognizing the need for conservatives to take back the Internet, Americans for Prosperity launched their Right Online conference last year in Austin, Texas. This year, over 700 conservative activists descended upon Pittsburgh to attend AFP’s second annual Right Online conference. Just across the river from where the conservative conference was held, the Left was holding its own Internet gathering: NetRoots Nation Convention. Reporters split their time between the two competing camps, covering both.

Break-out sessions covered topics ranging from how to fundraise online,… Read More

As I prepare to write articles and blogs every week, I often Google various subjects to help research my topic. Perhaps, like me, you’ve noticed that too often, the majority of the results are liberal blogs. Now that the Internet has become the primary source of information in our time, it’s imperative that conservatives counter this influx of disinformation with the truth. The only way to do that is to provide our own content online.

Recognizing the need for conservatives to take back the Internet, Americans for Prosperity launched their Right Online conference last year in Austin, Texas. This year, over 700 conservative activists descended upon Pittsburgh to attend AFP’s second annual Right Online conference. Just across the river from where the conservative conference was held, the Left was holding its own Internet gathering: NetRoots Nation Convention. Reporters split their time between the two competing camps, covering both.

Break-out sessions covered topics ranging from how to fundraise online,… Read More

A few noted items from the past week…

Bejarano Drops Bid for SD County Sheriff… If you missed it, we called the news first, then confirmed it right here at the FlashReport on Tuesday.

With the leading fundraiser now out of the 2010 race, the remaining candidates are former Sheriff Lt. Jim Duffy, appointed Sheriff Bill Gore, former Assemblyman Jay La Suer, and former Sheriff Sgt. Bruce Ruff. On Thursday, Duffy scored the Deputy Sheriffs’ Association endorsement. The next several months will be fun to watch.

Here’s theFR post from Tuesday.

The Money Story in the Hollingsworth Senate Seat… Also from yesterday, I say here’s the bucks in the bank "if" Joel Anderson runs; Jon Fleischman says "How quaint, he IS in." Either way, here is… Read More

A few Republicans may be lining up to run in the 77th Assembly District next year, all anticipating the spot may be open, yet incumbent Joel Anderson is still mum on his plans to run for senate instead of re-election.

Whatis known is that the 36th Senate seat is indeed open, as Dennis Hollingsworth is term-limited out.

Speaking of anticipation, then, much of it centers on a potential match-up between Anderson and Riverside County Supervisor Jeff Stone in a senate seat roughly 2/3 San Diego and 1/3 Riverside counties.

Stone is already in, no question. Okay then, if Anderson does run, what does the current money situation look like, comparing their respective state committees?…

Total Funds Raised (Jan-June 2009)Anderson – $355,767 Stone – $242,077

Total Cash on Hand (June 30) Anderson – $443,501 Stone – $209,026

If Anderson enters the senate race, FR readers will be among the first to know.

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www.twitter.com/barryjantz… Read More

You have to scratch your at the appointment by Speaker Karen Bass of ultra-left win San Francisco Democrat Tom Ammiano (pictured left) to serve as Chairman of the Assembly Public Safety Committee. While it is not that surprising that Bass made a change in the leadership of this key committee, given that the now-former Chairman was Juan Arambula, a Central Valley Democrat who quit the party of Obama and is now registered DTS, it is eyebrow raising that the Speaker tapped someone so clearly to the far left of public sentiment on law and order issues to replace him.

But wait, there’s more. Believe it or not we have a downtown San Francisco "dream team" of criminal… Read More

You have to scratch your at the appointment by Speaker Karen Bass of ultra-left win San Francisco Democrat Tom Ammiano (pictured left) to serve as Chairman of the Assembly Public Safety Committee. While it is not that surprising that Bass made a change in the leadership of this key committee, given that the now-former Chairman was Juan Arambula, a Central Valley Democrat who quit the party of Obama and is now registered DTS, it is eyebrow raising that the Speaker tapped someone so clearly to the far left of public sentiment on law and order issues to replace him.

But wait, there’s more. Believe it or not we have a downtown San Francisco "dream team" of criminal… Read More