Posted by Duane Dichiara at 12:00 am on Aug 18, 2009 2 Comments
Assembly District 5 (R-Niello, open 2010) is a largely suburban
Sacramento seat, and was previously represented by former
Republican Leader, now State Senator, Dave Cox. There is lots of
chatter amongst the political class about AD5, and whether recent
registration trends have moved the seat from ‘Safe Republican’ to
‘Swing’.
Let’s start with the numbers. In 2004 the registration by
party was 44.44% Republican, 37.5% Democrat, 13.61% Decline to
State. In 2009 the numbers are 38.77% Republican, 37.90% Democrat,
and 19.03% Decline to State. Thus, the seat is nearing a ‘push’ on
partisan registration. However, I think it’s useful to look a
little past of the top of the line numbers. Virtually all of the
movement occurred during the 2007-2008 cycle (2 Democrat points up
in this period, 2 Decline to State points up, and 3.5 points of GOP
slippage). It could be argued – and I think Republicans hope – that
this was largely the result of the national surge of Obamism, and
the lack of a funded McCain campaign in California, and that new
registration results should on the natural favor Republicans if
they can… Read More