According to the Orange County Registrar of Voters, 78,931 voters in the 72nd Assembly District have been mailed absentee ballots. As of close of business, the OCROV had received 4,355 back (see the daily updates here).

Tracking the number of absentee ballots returned is an essential component of properly framing the election strategy in this hyper-condensed special election that will have a relatively tiny turnout. If the past is any indicator (it is), then a strong majority of the votes cast in this election to fill the vacant Assembly Seat will come from absentee voters.

With the likelihood that thousands of votes will be cast each day (certainly in the coming days), there is a scramble for both the Norby and the Ackerman campaigns to really get their messaging out — especially to absentee voters — pronto.

Linda Ackerman has no choice but to hit Chris Norby hard with negative mail. As long long time public official in north Orange County, Norby has had many years to build up his positive name identification. If Ackerman… Read More

From 1994 to 2002, I was the Vice Chair of the Senate Committee on Public Employee and Retirement Systems (we called it the PERS committee). If that committee is not hell for Republicans, it certainly is purgatory. Every single committee hearing was filled with Government Employee Union Lobbyists coming in and asking for higher pensions. I used to refer to this gang of lobbyists as the Red Brigade.

For eight years, I sat on that committee voting NO on every single request for increased pensions, and talking about how these requests were going to bankrupt the State. In the Dot Com boom of the late 90’s, CalPers and these lobbyists talked about how wrong I was, and about how the increase in the value of CalPers investments would more than cover the increased pension benefits, and that "taxpayers would never have to pay for the pensions again." I endured harangue after harangue from these lobbyists and from my Democrat colleagues, both in committee and on the floor, for speaking up against this massive giveaway.

One of the Democrats who dished up those criticisms was Bill Lockyer, then President Pro Tem of the Senate. He had sentenced me… Read More

Danny Gilmore’s indecision as to whether to seek another term in the State Legislature is not surprising – he’s simply a sane person who is wholly incompatible with an insane Legislature.

Gilmore came to the office a true citizen public servant, with a distinguished career in public safety and a comfortable life in retirement. He didn’t need the job. After a tough battle with Nicole Parra in 2006 (he narrowly lost), he beat the mother of incendiary State Senator Dean Florez in 2008. In speaking with him then, he truly was interested in being part of solutions to the myriad of urgent issues facing California.

His reward from the hyper-partisans in Sacramento? Although a significant part of his District is in Kern County, he was not given a District office in Bakersfield. Another representation of the sick culture led by Assembly Speaker Karen Bass.

Then, shortly after he was sworn in, he was thrust into one of the worst budget battles in our lifetime. Budget battles are the only battles in Sacramento where Republicans matter. And the GOP leadership caved… Read More

It’s useful to remember that the ‘unemployment rate’ used by this, and the last several administrations in Washington, is not the actual unemployment rate. Since the 1970’s consecutive administrations have segmented out portions of the unemployed and removed them from the equation. Usually, these segmented lists are basically people who are no longer looking for work or who are barely employed. Of course, people who the government determines ‘can’t work’ are also removed (having had a number of relatives in this camp, much to my disgust, I think getting on this list isn’t particularly hard).

To wit:

“If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking — so-called discouraged workers — and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart.

This is the number we should use, since it is the actual number.… Read More

I’m playing a little catch up this morning on some announcements put out by the Meg Whitman for Governor campaign. Whitman announced endorsements from roughly 20 current and former County Supervisors around the State:

Current and Former Supervisors Endorsing Whitman

Linda Arcularius – Inyo County Supervisor Marion Ashley – Riverside County Supervisor Vikki Magee Bauer – Mono County Supervisor John Bennett – Former Alpine County Supervisor Paul Biane – San Bernardino County Supervisor Judy Case – Vice Chair, Fresno County Board of Supervisors Kim Dolbow Vann – Vice Chair, Colusa County Board of Supervisors Sue Horne – Former Chairwoman, Nevada County Board of Supervisors Bill Horn – San Diego County Supervisor Dianne … Read More

Last night in a telephonic Board of Directors meeting, the Young Republican Federation of California endorsed Republican National Committeewoman Linda Ackerman in her bid for the State Assembly.

This endorsing is a big one for Ackerman for two reason. The first is that the YRFC is significant statewide Republican group in California, with an ability to turn out large numbers of volunteers from around the state in special elections.

The second reason is that in a blistering in-essence two-way primary with a lot of mud being hurled in both directions, both the Ackerman and the Norby campaigns will be seeking all credible third parties to come in and vouch for them.… Read More

A few posts below, I talked about the importance of "third party" endorsements in the AD 72 election. People are going to want to hear from trusted messengers when they try to sort through their candidates choices for this special election — especially with how negative the race has been, from day one.

Today the campaign of Supervisor Chris Norby dropped a piece featuring the "gold standard" of California conservatism — that of Congressman Tom McClintock. McClintock has statewide name ID from three runs for statewide office (one of them in the 1993 recall election against Arnold Schwarzenegger). McClintock was elected to Congress in Northern California last year, but undoubtedly remains well known to high-propensity GOP voters statewide.

Here is the piece:

… Read More

Last evening, I attended an event in Oakland where 250 people—mostly Republicans—gathered to listen to Meg Whitman discuss why she wants to be California’s next governor. After a brief speech in which she laid out her three top priorities—cutting spending, creating jobs and improving education—she took questions from the audience. There were a number of interesting questions asked, including her position on Prop. 13 (she doesn’t want to touch it), how would she deal with the powerful public employee unions (tough negotiations) and how she would improve schools (among other things, increase the number of charter schools and give public schools a letter grade, A-F).

On economic and government spending issues, Whitman says all of the right things. She even says she plans to take on the CTA in order to improve the schools. But I can’t help to think back to Arnold Schwarzenegger’s campaign for governor. He was saying the same things. Yet, in the end, he never had the skill set to actually achieve those reforms.

So my question to Meg Whitman last night was, essentially, how are you going to be different than Arnold Schwarzenegger?… Read More