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Jim Lacy, aslatemaker,released some polling data today that suggests OC Supervisor Chris Norby is winning the race for AD 72 in the November Special Election. And at first glance you might think the results have some relevance. But take another look:

The poll he contracted for only surveys Republican voters

Special Elections in California are not governed by typical Primary Election rules that exclude cross-party voting. Therefore the Lacy poll is way off baseand has little relevance in the grand scheme of electing someone to replace Duvall. Leaving out Democratic and Decline to State voters and even third-party members who represent a small portion of the electorate, totally and unforgivingly skews the results to meaninglessness.

Moreover, the poll fails to select any turnout model even just among the Republican voters surveyed. So in a low turnout Special Election where (you pick a number 20%, 30%, 19% 34%) will actually cast a ballot, the Lacy poll chooses to survey everyone who happens to be registered to the GOP regardless of their voting history. If you believe the Lacy poll, 90% of Republican voters will turnout in… Read More

While I bask in the Florida sunshine, a small break from vacation, if that makes sense, to note a couple of items from last week…

Who needs a public vote, especially when we all know it will surely end in failure?… The quote resulting in the most buzz, shock and awe — as well as a few guffaws —during the week was undoubtedly that of longtime community leader Malin Burnham, an icon of the downtown San Diego business establishment. On Thursday he argued against a public vote for a new (and controversial) $432 million city hall:

There’s less than one percent of the citizens in the United States of America that understand the complexity in how to put these kinds of projects together, so why would we want to ask the other 99 percent? Oh my…talk about tossing a dirty diaper into the playpen.

Richard Rider was also part of the SD Downtown Partnership forum where the instantly classic comments were made.… Read More

According to the Orange County Registrar of Voters, 78,931 voters in the 72nd Assembly District have been mailed absentee ballots. As of close of business, the OCROV had received 4,355 back (see the daily updates here).

Tracking the number of absentee ballots returned is an essential component of properly framing the election strategy in this hyper-condensed special election that will have a relatively tiny turnout. If the past is any indicator (it is), then a strong majority of the votes cast in this election to fill the vacant Assembly Seat will come from absentee voters.

With the likelihood that thousands of votes will be cast each day (certainly in the coming days), there is a scramble for both the Norby and the Ackerman campaigns to really get their messaging out — especially to absentee voters — pronto.

Linda Ackerman has no choice but to hit Chris Norby hard with negative mail. As long long time public official in north Orange County, Norby has had many years to build up his positive name identification. If Ackerman… Read More

From 1994 to 2002, I was the Vice Chair of the Senate Committee on Public Employee and Retirement Systems (we called it the PERS committee). If that committee is not hell for Republicans, it certainly is purgatory. Every single committee hearing was filled with Government Employee Union Lobbyists coming in and asking for higher pensions. I used to refer to this gang of lobbyists as the Red Brigade.

For eight years, I sat on that committee voting NO on every single request for increased pensions, and talking about how these requests were going to bankrupt the State. In the Dot Com boom of the late 90’s, CalPers and these lobbyists talked about how wrong I was, and about how the increase in the value of CalPers investments would more than cover the increased pension benefits, and that "taxpayers would never have to pay for the pensions again." I endured harangue after harangue from these lobbyists and from my Democrat colleagues, both in committee and on the floor, for speaking up against this massive giveaway.

One of the Democrats who dished up those criticisms was Bill Lockyer, then President Pro Tem of the Senate. He had sentenced me… Read More

Danny Gilmore’s indecision as to whether to seek another term in the State Legislature is not surprising – he’s simply a sane person who is wholly incompatible with an insane Legislature.

Gilmore came to the office a true citizen public servant, with a distinguished career in public safety and a comfortable life in retirement. He didn’t need the job. After a tough battle with Nicole Parra in 2006 (he narrowly lost), he beat the mother of incendiary State Senator Dean Florez in 2008. In speaking with him then, he truly was interested in being part of solutions to the myriad of urgent issues facing California.

His reward from the hyper-partisans in Sacramento? Although a significant part of his District is in Kern County, he was not given a District office in Bakersfield. Another representation of the sick culture led by Assembly Speaker Karen Bass.

Then, shortly after he was sworn in, he was thrust into one of the worst budget battles in our lifetime. Budget battles are the only battles in Sacramento where Republicans matter. And the GOP leadership caved… Read More

It’s useful to remember that the ‘unemployment rate’ used by this, and the last several administrations in Washington, is not the actual unemployment rate. Since the 1970’s consecutive administrations have segmented out portions of the unemployed and removed them from the equation. Usually, these segmented lists are basically people who are no longer looking for work or who are barely employed. Of course, people who the government determines ‘can’t work’ are also removed (having had a number of relatives in this camp, much to my disgust, I think getting on this list isn’t particularly hard).

To wit:

“If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking — so-called discouraged workers — and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart.

This is the number we should use, since it is the actual number.… Read More

I’m playing a little catch up this morning on some announcements put out by the Meg Whitman for Governor campaign. Whitman announced endorsements from roughly 20 current and former County Supervisors around the State:

Current and Former Supervisors Endorsing Whitman

Linda Arcularius – Inyo County Supervisor Marion Ashley – Riverside County Supervisor Vikki Magee Bauer – Mono County Supervisor John Bennett – Former Alpine County Supervisor Paul Biane – San Bernardino County Supervisor Judy Case – Vice Chair, Fresno County Board of Supervisors Kim Dolbow Vann – Vice Chair, Colusa County Board of Supervisors Sue Horne – Former Chairwoman, Nevada County Board of Supervisors Bill Horn – San Diego County Supervisor Dianne … Read More