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Jon Fleischman

Governor Praises Over-Regulation

Earth to Governor Schwarzenegger: We Are In A RECESSION. Times are TOUGH. People are OUT OF WORK. Those who are working (and certainly those who aren’t) have LESS MONEY TO SPEND.

So it is certinly not appreciated when you sign legislation that sounds nifty but has the practical effect of making this state a more expensive place to live, work or run a business.

I think that it is remarkably tone-deaf of you to praise the California Energy Commission for passing new expensive and onerous regulations while you proudly boast that you veto "job killer" legislation.

Guess what, in your press release today, you are praising job killer regulation.

At some point, you need to come to terms with the fact that your aggressive agenda to cause people to consume less energy and emit less carbon comes at a significant economic cost.

If you want to "feel good" — donate your own carbon credits and go buy your own more expensive energy-efficient big screen television. But it is wrong to force everyone else to jump through your hoops so that can hang with Al Gore… Read More

James V. Lacy

Funny numbers?

Noting our publisher’s self-congratulations on predicting Tuesday morning the essentials of the Norby win in the 72nd AD special election that same day, I’ll do the same here, because my own poll, first published here a month ago, showed the victory in the making weeks before Jon’s prediction. My poll, taken Oct, 22-25, showed Norby’s positives at about 38% and Linda Ackerman’s as 19%. Though limited to Republicans, these figures are startlingly close to the actual vote results in the race. In addition, while my poll showed overall Republican voter support as 27% for Norby and 17% for Ackerman (underpredicting Norby’s election day strength a little but pretty much nailing Ackerman’s vote) the cross-tabs for the absentee vote almost exactly mirror the actual result of the election on November 17. Adam Probolsky attempted to sully my poll in this publication by calling the survey “funny numbers” in a post. He was wrong. The actual results strongly support the credibility of my poll results and I certainly don’t mind pointing that out to FR readers.… Read More

James V. Lacy

Norby leads early balloting in 72nd AD special

I’m at Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby’s election night party at Cherch’s Restaurant and Bar in downtown Fullerton (a neat, funky place, by the way!). The place is packed with Norby supporters and conservative friends including collleagues on the Western CPAC board, Bill Saracino and Allen Brandstater, and volunteer extraordinaire Pete Sheridan, who all came down from LA County to walk precincts for Norby today. Even some in other categories are here (I think I saw Supervisor Janet Nguyen, whom I think endorsed Norby opponent Linda Ackerman). It looks like campaign manager John Lewis did a good job chasing absentee ballots. Norby has 36% in first pass by OC Registrar; the Democrat is in second place with 28%, and Ackerman is third at 20%. Norby’s almost twenty point lead over Ackerman should hold.… Read More

Jon Fleischman

AD72: Norby Likely To Prevail In Particularly Negative Election

After talking with a number of savvy politicos whose opinions I hold in high regard, I think it is safe to say that the expected outcome of today’s Special Election in Orange County’s 72nd Assembly District will be that Supervisor Chris Norby will win the Republican nomination, but fall well short of the outright majority of the total vote necessary to avoid a run-off election next month.

The analysis is pretty straight-forward. Chris Norby, as first a long-time Fullerton City Councilmember (the largest city in AD 72) and then as a two-time elected Supervisor, simply had too much positive name identification in the district to be defeated. Most of those to whom I spoke felt that if this election were being held on a more traditional time-line, with a much longer period of time for voters to hear from candidates and advocacy groups, that Republican National Committeewoman and Metropolitan Water District Member Linda Ackerman would have had a very good shot at winning a plurality of support from Republican voters. The short time line meant that literally only a few weeks elapsed before absentee ballots were shipped out and high-propensity AB voters… Read More

Jon Fleischman

Today’s Commentary: AD72: Norby Likely To Prevail In Particularly Negative Special Election

After talking with a number of savvy politicos whose opinions I hold in high regard, I think it is safe to say that the expected outcome of today’s Special Election in Orange County’s 72nd Assembly District will be that Supervisor Chris Norby will win the Republican nomination, but fall well short of the outright majority of the total vote necessary to avoid a run-off election next month.

The analysis is pretty straight-forward. Chris Norby, as first a long-time Fullerton City Councilmember (the largest city in AD 72) and then as a two-time elected Supervisor, simply had too much positive name identification in the district to be defeated. Most of those to whom I spoke felt that if this election were being held on a more traditional time-line, with a much longer period of time for voters to hear from candidates and advocacy groups, that Republican National Committeewoman and Metropolitan Water District Member Linda Ackerman would have had a very good shot at winning a plurality of support from Republican voters. The short time line meant that literally only a few weeks elapsed before absentee ballots were shipped out and high-propensity AB voters… Read More

Jon Fleischman

AD 68 Analysis: Mayor Allan Mansoor Prohibitive Frontrunner

As we continue to assess the lay of the land of Republican primaries in “safe” GOP or competitive seats, today we turn our virtual magnifying glass on the 68th Assembly District. This district is located in the center-west of Orange County. (See the map here.) It includes all or part of the following cities: Stanton, Garden Grove, Westminster, Fountain Valley, and Costa Mesa. The seat is currently held by my friend going back to college days, Republican Assemblyman Van Tran. Tran is departing the Assembly after his third allowable term, and is running hard for Congress, where he is challenging incumbent Democrat Loretta Sanchez.

By the numbers, the seat has been considered safe Republican. There are 90,496 GOP voters (41%), 72,992 Democrat voters (33%), and 47,166 Decline to… Read More

Jon Fleischman

Today’s Commentary: AD 68 Analysis: Mayor Allan Mansoor Prohibitive Frontrunner

As we continue to assess the lay of the land of Republican primaries in “safe” GOP or competitive seats, today we turn our virtual magnifying glass on the 68th Assembly District. This district is located in the center-west of Orange County. (See the map here.) It includes all or part of the following cities: Stanton, Garden Grove, Westminster, Fountain Valley, and Costa Mesa. The seat is currently held by my friend going back to college days, Republican Assemblyman Van Tran. Tran is departing the Assembly after his third allowable term, and is running hard for Congress, where he is challenging incumbent Democrat Loretta Sanchez.

By the numbers, the seat has been considered safe Republican. There are 90,496 GOP voters (41%), 72,992 Democrat voters (33%), and 47,166 Decline to… Read More

Jon Fleischman

Arnold in Iraq? Or on the Moon?

Today Governor Schwarzenegger is supposedly visiting U.S. troops stationed in Iraq. That said, I got an e-mail this morning from a loyal FlashReport reader asking me if the Governor was secretly on a mission to the moon, to find out if the recent discovery of water there could somehow be utilized to help California with it’s h20 woes.

He writes, "I read where Arnold mentioned using some technology from his fictional tale of the future, Total Recall, to build the state’s peripheral canal as a long tunnel. So maybe now he’s on the moon to see if in addition to discovering water, he can "find" an ancient alien machine that, if activated by his hand, would somehow transport this lunar water to Earth, and to Central Valley farms."

He then sent me a link to the clip from Total Recall.… Read More

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