Posted by Jason Cabel Roe at 9:35 am on Jan 03, 2012 1 Comment
Since December 21, The Real Clear Politics average of all recent
polls of Iowa Caucus goers shows a very tight race between Mitt
Romney (22.8%) and Ron Paul (21.5%) with Rick Santorum (16.3%)
trending up into third place. What to draw from this?
Over this period, Romney and Paul have been fairly consistent in
their tracking with Romney’s high-to-low at 19-25 and Paul’s at
20-22 (other than one 19, he reads 22-25). While Newt
Gingrich (13.7%) shows an uptick from the freefall of last week
(12-16), Rick Santorum (16.3%) is steadily trending up from
15-18.
Romney, Santorum, and Paul all draw from different ideologies
and geographies in the state. Romney, the establishment
favorite, who has been portrayed as a moderate, will need to draw
heavily from moderate east Iowa. Santorum, who is an
evangelical, is being propelled by the social conservatives that
dominate the northwest of the state. And Paul depends on more
libertarian non-establishment conservatives and young activists and
will benefit from a strong turnout from college towns like
Ames.
In 2008, the RCP average going into the Primary was Huckabee
34.4%, Romney 25.2%, McCain 13%, and Paul… Read More