Iowa
Since December 21, The Real Clear Politics average of all recent polls of Iowa Caucus goers shows a very tight race between Mitt Romney (22.8%) and Ron Paul (21.5%) with Rick Santorum (16.3%) trending up into third place. What to draw from this?
Over this period, Romney and Paul have been fairly consistent in their tracking with Romney’s high-to-low at 19-25 and Paul’s at 20-22 (other than one 19, he reads 22-25). While Newt Gingrich (13.7%) shows an uptick from the freefall of last week (12-16), Rick Santorum (16.3%) is steadily trending up from 15-18.
Romney, Santorum, and Paul all draw from different ideologies and geographies in the state. Romney, the establishment favorite, who has been portrayed as a moderate, will need to draw heavily from moderate east Iowa. Santorum, who is an evangelical, is being propelled by the social conservatives that dominate the northwest of the state. And Paul depends on more libertarian non-establishment conservatives and young activists and will benefit from a strong turnout from college towns like Ames.
In 2008, the RCP average going into the Primary was Huckabee 34.4%, Romney 25.2%, McCain 13%, and Paul… Read More