The million dollar question is: Will State Senator John Campbell hit the 50% plus one vote mark he needs to win the 48th District Congressional seat outright on Tuesday, October 4 or be forced into a run-off.

The race has 17 candidates, but only a few with a prayer of even making a real showing:

Campbell of course had the edge from the get-go (see the Probolsky Poll [insert rolling of the eyes for my shameless self promotion here] from June). Former Assemblywoman Brewer has spent real money to try to be a player again and Minute Man founder Jim Gilchrist has parlayed his boarder protection volunteering and KFI radio’s John and Ken appearances into something.

Its important to note that the Dems will vote, some will listen to Brewer’s appeal that says a Democrat can’t win so vote for me a… Read More

The Main Street Partnership’s decision to get involved in the special election for the 48th Congressional District is an example of putting their agenda for the Republican Party ahead of the Republican Party. I’ve seen enough polling data to convince me that Ms. Brewer has no chance of winning but every chance of forcing Senator John Campbell into an unecessary run-off election. A run-off for Campbell would waste hundreds of thousands of dollars in Republican money, put a safe Republican seat in possible jeopardy, and leave the House GOP short-handed a vote for several weeks.

You can argue that the House GOP doesn’t need that one vote, or that there is plenty of campaign cash in Orange County, or that Jim Gilchrist won’ t have enough impact on a run-off to put the 48th in play for the Dems. But why take the chance?

Some will argue that the national GOP needs to hear the message from the base (in the form of Gilchrist) by forcing a run-off but I would argue that the national GOP has heard the message.… Read More

As "experts" wonder in awe at lagging box office receipts, the worst summer in history, and no improvement in sight, can I just suggest that there are a few of us who won’t subsidize the blame America first crowd in Hollywood? Now Donald Sutherland, who heretofore was rather quiet about all things political, is making an ass out of himself for all the world to see. For all Bush’s many, many faults, the war on terror is not one – no attacks since 9-11 on our soil would be the barometer to measure the outcome by. If you choose, you can link to Sutherland’s comments here.

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All of us agree that he Governor has an uphill battle to fight in this special election. Few would disagree that his political shop has failed him. You can’t populate the shop with conservatives, moderate and liberals or you get a jumbled message, which is what we have seen up until list week. A couple of suggestions: quit talking about “union bosses”. Today’s public employee unions, while thuggish as a political adversary, are viewed more professionally than in the old days. Instead, refer to them as what they are: enemies of reform. Repeat it often. Second, these “staged” town halls are phony and they look phony. In the recall campaign you mingled with the people. Do it again. Take on the protesters. Better yet, let us do it for you. We are itching for the fight because you are RIGHT on the issues and we are eager to defend you. Return to your populist instincts. As a politician you look too contrived and scripted. The Terminator didn’t run from the competition. More later……..… Read More

Late last week, former State GOP Chairman Shawn Steel sent out an e-mail announcing that his wife, Michelle, had been appointed Deputy to Board of Equalization Member Claude Parrish. This becomes important because in the race between Michelle Steel and Assemblyman Ray Haynes to get elected to the Board of Equalization in this sprawling district (OC, SD, Riverside and parts of LA and San Bernardino Counties), ballot title is a huge advantage!

It was reported in a FlashReport analysis of this race back in August:

You can check out the e-mail that I got from Shawn below.

In tennis parlance: "ADVANTAGE: STEEL."… Read More

Arnold Schwarzennegger is running behind. So why is his campaign running like they’re ten points ahead?

I respect the people around him: I’ve worked with most of them and they’re a talented group that does very good work. But there’s a lack of urgency surrounding the initiative campaigns that doesn’t make any sense. Mike Murphy talks about having enough money to drop a "grand piano" at the end of the campaign, which is the right approach, especially when the other side has more money. Hopefully that piano is a message that can change the dynamic of the debate, because so far it seems like pretty standard stuff.

Schwarzenegger himself is saying the right things on the stump, although tying the special election back to the recall is something they should have suggested to him in January rather than August. The ads are OK, but they’re the type of messaging for when you’re ten points ahead. Worse, they feel like boiler-plate campaign commercials that Pete Wilson, Gray Davis… Read More

Okay, so you’ve decided to run for office. Good for you. You obviously will work hard, raise money, and put together an effective voter contact program – in mailboxes, through digital ads, and knocking on doors. But it should be your aspirational goal for your candidacy to excite others out there who may want to help your candidacy. Outside people or groups can make what are called independent expenditures. These efforts can raise and spend as much money towards helping you as they want – with no contribution limits. With one caveat – and an important one – they cannot have any communications with you or your campaign! So, how does an independent expenditure get their hands on all of the things they would need to help you out? That’s something you can do, and it’s perfectly legal. It’s called making good use of your campaign website, and your social media channels. When your own campaign is designing voter contact, what do they need? Photos of you? Your family? Quotes from you. Maybe some positions you have on issues, and things you would do if elected? Your list of endorsers, and maybe putting something nice that they say about you in… Read More