WILL BILL THOMAS RUN FOR CONGRESS? All eyes are on the Registrar of Voters in Kern County these days as much speculation swirls about whether long-time moderate GOP Congressman Bill Thomas (pictured to the right) will decide to retire at the end of this term or not. For a while, it was really being talked about as a likely scenario, as Thomas’ seat as Chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee must be surrendered at the end of this session due to the House "3-term limit" on Committee Chairmanships (part of the Gingrich-era reforms). Most are of the opinion that Thomas’ retirement couldn’t come soon enough. The mercurial Congressman has long championed the election of liberal Republicans and has a decades-long track record of divisive politics. He also has quite a temper, which has been exhibited in public many-a-time. He… Read More

The Tarrance Group, a polling firm out of Virginia was retained by the Tom Harman for State Senate campaign to survey likely voters. Today, Harman’s campaign gave the FR the early scoop (H/T to FR contributor Duane Dichiara) on the results from that survey.

This survey of 459 registered "likely" voters was taken on February 19-20. The ballot test: TOM HARMAN: 37% LARRY CABALLERO: 23% (Dem) DIANE HARKEY: 16% UNDECIDED: 20%

Name identification: HARMAN: 76% of voters know who he is with 39% having a favorable impression and 14% having an unfavorable impression. HARKEY: 39% know her, and… Read More

OC Sheriff Mike Carona has been called America’s Sheriff. Well last night Orange County conservative Republicans made it clear they support him for re-election here at home.

Over 60 California Republican Assembly delegates from a dozen OC chapters of the conservative grassroots organization UNANIMOUSLY voted to endorse Sheriff Mike Carona.

The sheriff’s most vocal opponent a lieutenant that works for the department has been putting the full court press on speaking at CRA chapter gatherings, but it amounted to nothing when it came time for the delegates to vote.

Carona is stronger than ever among the voters despite being the target of an LA Times attack campaign (I am a friend to the media and don’t use those words lightly).… Read More

These days, central Orange County is a hotbed of political activity. The nucleus of the craziness is the bigger-than-life double-contested-primary race to see who will succeed State Senator Joe Dunn (D-Lives out of the district) in the 34th State Senate District. One of the candidates in the contested GOP primary for that seat is Assemblyman Van Tran. Tran’s Senate candidacy sets the stage for a GOP primary in his 68th Assembly District seat, which he has represented for only one term.

As has been mentioned on the FR before, there are two candidates running in this Republican primary (in the 68th, Democrats need not apply). One is long-time GOP activist and donor Jim Righeimer. The other is Janet Nguyen, who is a member of the Garden Grove City Council, and works as an executive with the Long Beach Chamber of Commerce.… Read More

The FlashReport has learned tonight from Assemblyman Van Tran that he has decided NOT to run for the State Senate in the 34th State Senate District. Instead, he will sit out the Senate race, and seek re-election to the 68th Assembly Seat he has occupied since 2004.

Tran said that his decision was not based on his ability to defeat his primary opponent in the race, Lynn Daucher. Rather, he felt that coming out of a bruising primary would make it virtually impossible to beat the eventual Democratic nominee, especially with his feeling that there was a lack of unity from certain critical fellow Republican leaders.

There is still a primary match-up though for Daucher, with the opponent being long-time Santa Ana Republican activist Lupe Moreno. But clearly she will not be as formidable a challenger to the well-funded Daucher as Tran would have been. The most immediate ripple-effect here is that Tran will now seek reelection in the 68th district where a GOP donnybrook was in full… Read More

The more manageable size of an Assembly District makes the local contact programs a good manager can set up more important in the total scheme of things than they often are in the larger State Senate or Congressional Districts. In a primary Assembly race, with even fewer voters, these programs double in importance.

Most Assembly races have a consultant and a manager. Sometimes the manager is the driver of the two entities, but much more often in California the consultants are the drivers. This is an exception to the national rule. This may be one of the reasons that "campaign managers" in California tend to be younger and less experienced than those I meet from other states. In short, if your career has a glass ceiling because a consulting firm is going to call all the shots, you do the job for a few years until you can either join a consulting firm or get a job in the legislature or 3rd house.

On the GOP side this glass ceiling has led to a new crop of inexperienced "yes men" every year who know their future is based more on their relationship with the consultant than in their performance in the field. While this may not be a big deal in… Read More

For some time now, the editorial team at the Orange County Register has been running a blog called the Orange Punch, but as of just a few days ago, I am pleased to let FR readers know that some of the political writers on the new-side of the OC Register have started writing for the new "Total Buzz" blog. The ‘starters’ for this new venture are the Register’s "Ace" Political Reporter "in county" – FR friend Martin Wisckol, who has garnered a reputation for his wide network of good sources. Joining him is the hard-charging Norberto Santana, who cover’s the OCR’s county government beat. Finally you have reporter Peggy Lowe to round out the trio.

FR predicts that very soon we will see the additions of Saraya Nelson out of the OCR Sacramento Bureau, and Dena Bunis out of DC. This will make for a great team, bringing us more great… Read More

I may be biased on that question, but a poll from American Viewpoint (hardly a right-wing polling company) shows that I’m in the majority of Californian Republicans that criticism of the Governor is valid.

In a poll conducted last week showed that a total of 65% of likely GOP primary voters feel the Governor should be criticized strongly when he strays from principle. See more here.… Read More