The Tarrance Group, a polling firm out of Virginia was retained by the Tom Harman for State Senate campaign to survey likely voters. Today, Harman’s campaign gave the FR the early scoop (H/T to FR contributor Duane Dichiara) on the results from that survey.

This survey of 459 registered "likely" voters was taken on February 19-20. The ballot test: TOM HARMAN: 37% LARRY CABALLERO: 23% (Dem) DIANE HARKEY: 16% UNDECIDED: 20%

Name identification: HARMAN: 76% of voters know who he is with 39% having a favorable impression and 14% having an unfavorable impression. HARKEY: 39% know her, and… Read More

OC Sheriff Mike Carona has been called America’s Sheriff. Well last night Orange County conservative Republicans made it clear they support him for re-election here at home.

Over 60 California Republican Assembly delegates from a dozen OC chapters of the conservative grassroots organization UNANIMOUSLY voted to endorse Sheriff Mike Carona.

The sheriff’s most vocal opponent a lieutenant that works for the department has been putting the full court press on speaking at CRA chapter gatherings, but it amounted to nothing when it came time for the delegates to vote.

Carona is stronger than ever among the voters despite being the target of an LA Times attack campaign (I am a friend to the media and don’t use those words lightly).… Read More

Steve Westly’s talking positive. Phil Angelides is beating up on Arnold. But it’s only a matter of time before they turn their guns on each other.

Both candidates have begun statewide advertising more than three months before the primary. When you have two politicians with that much money and that little self-restraint, the odds of either of them getting through the next hundred days with approval ratings any higher than mine are pretty slim.

If Arnold can pull a Steve McQueen and walk through the Democratic bar fight without getting touched, the three months of an Angelides-Westly bloodbath could give the governor some time to restore his own poll numbers and campaign coffers. But just a few thoughts before the Democraic fratricide gets going:

1) Angelides is using Barbara Boxer as a spokesperson in his first ad. Along with his support for tax increases and death-to-Arnold messaging, this is clearly about positioning him in a Democratic primary. But millions of dollars of Boxer ads could leave a residue that may not be so helpful in a general election. In 2004, California Democrats would have happily nominated Howard Dean… Read More

For some time now, the editorial team at the Orange County Register has been running a blog called the Orange Punch, but as of just a few days ago, I am pleased to let FR readers know that some of the political writers on the new-side of the OC Register have started writing for the new "Total Buzz" blog. The ‘starters’ for this new venture are the Register’s "Ace" Political Reporter "in county" – FR friend Martin Wisckol, who has garnered a reputation for his wide network of good sources. Joining him is the hard-charging Norberto Santana, who cover’s the OCR’s county government beat. Finally you have reporter Peggy Lowe to round out the trio.

FR predicts that very soon we will see the additions of Saraya Nelson out of the OCR Sacramento Bureau, and Dena Bunis out of DC. This will make for a great team, bringing us more great… Read More

The more manageable size of an Assembly District makes the local contact programs a good manager can set up more important in the total scheme of things than they often are in the larger State Senate or Congressional Districts. In a primary Assembly race, with even fewer voters, these programs double in importance.

Most Assembly races have a consultant and a manager. Sometimes the manager is the driver of the two entities, but much more often in California the consultants are the drivers. This is an exception to the national rule. This may be one of the reasons that "campaign managers" in California tend to be younger and less experienced than those I meet from other states. In short, if your career has a glass ceiling because a consulting firm is going to call all the shots, you do the job for a few years until you can either join a consulting firm or get a job in the legislature or 3rd house.

On the GOP side this glass ceiling has led to a new crop of inexperienced "yes men" every year who know their future is based more on their relationship with the consultant than in their performance in the field. While this may not be a big deal in… Read More

I may be biased on that question, but a poll from American Viewpoint (hardly a right-wing polling company) shows that I’m in the majority of Californian Republicans that criticism of the Governor is valid.

In a poll conducted last week showed that a total of 65% of likely GOP primary voters feel the Governor should be criticized strongly when he strays from principle. See more here.… Read More

It was annoying to see the big Pierre Richard Prosper for AG display at the convention this weekend, especially since he has not pulled papers on the race.

Prosper really should be running against Dianne Feinstein for U.S. Senate. We have no one running against Feinstein, allowing her to lean left in an election year (voting against Supreme Court nominees Alito and Roberts in committee and on the floor).

Prosper should run in this seat, not against Sen. Chuck Poochigian in the attorney general race. He has no state experience, he doesn’t live in California and his homeland security experience would serve him well in the Senate race.

There’s no question that… Read More

As I begin to write about the California Republican Party Convention that I attended this weekend at the Fairmont Hotel in San Jose, I should start out by saying that as the week goes by, I (along with many other FR weblog contributors who attended the convention) will be following this piece with other thoughts, observations, stories and vignettes on things that happened in the hallways, backrooms, and hospitality suites at the convention. Of course, the highlight of our review of the CRP convention will come late in the week when the FlashReport releases our latest version of the Winners & Losers of the CRP convention. For the last ten convention (going back five years), the W&L edition of the FR has looked back over the weekend, from just about every imaginable angle, and tried to figure out how people fared, from topics as varied as political elections to personal attire. We really encourage input as we figure this all out, as the FR and our team couldn’t be everywhere, so please submit your ideas here. My first… Read More