The 50th Congressional District Two weeks from tomorrow, there will be Congressional special election taking place in California. Actually, with absentee voting being such a large percentage of votes cast in special election, it would almost be more accurate to say that is a special election "underway" right now. The race has captured the national political spotlight because it is the race to fill out the unexpired term of former GOP Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham who is now one of the most infamous criminals in the annals of Congress. The millions of dollars that he took in exchange for directing government contracts into the hands of his ‘benefactors’ has sent Duke to jail for many years, and now voters on San Diego’s "Gold Coast" need to choose a new representative. There are a ton of Republicans running for the seat — thus making the amount of votes necessary to clintch the GOP nomination… Read More

As some can imagine, I received several emails and calls from folks upset the CRA “hit” Bilbray is his race to replace convicted Congressman Cunningham. Many have suggested that we are not allowed to speak ill of a GOP candidate and cite Ronald Reagan’s “11th Commandment” Historically, I’m glad Reagan challenged the powers to be and ran against an incumbent Republican in 1976. Principle is always more important than being “nice” CRA hit Bilbray for one reason. His nomination jeopardizes Republicans keeping the seat. I know many say it is impossible to lose this seat. History tells us differently. Democrats lost a safe seat when the Powerful Dan Rostenkowski had ethics problems. Congressman from both parties has been upset when corruption is on the table. The 50th district is one of the most … Read More

RALLIES ON IMMIGRATION REFORM Tens of thousands of protesters, in what was clearly a coordinated statewide effort, held rallies to protest what they consider to be unacceptable solutions to the country’s illegal immigation problem. This is a national debate, and while the FR is a California-centered publication, there is probably no other state that is as negatively impacted by the failure of the federal government to address this problem than ours. Mike Der Manouel has a commentary on the main page on this issue — but it seems to me that you can divide the issue into two parts. The first part — the easy part — is border control. Congress needs to put up a security barrier between Mexico and the United States, and take seriously the role of tracking who is coming into this country. Pursuant to this is an obligation to exclude from entry anyone… Read More

RALLIES ON IMMIGRATION REFORM Tens of thousands of protesters, in what was clearly a coordinated statewide effort, held rallies to protest what they consider to be unacceptable solutions to the country’s illegal immigation problem. This is a national debate, and while the FR is a California-centered publication, there is probably no other state that is as negatively impacted by the failure of the federal government to address this problem than ours. Mike Der Manouel has a commentary on the main page on this issue — but it seems to me that you can divide the issue into two parts. The first part — the easy part — is border control. Congress needs to put up a security barrier between Mexico and the United States, and take seriously the role of tracking who is coming into this country. Pursuant to this is an obligation to exclude from entry anyone… Read More

50th Polling … KGTV Channel 10 released a "favorable/unfavorable" SurveyUSA poll, which you can see here. Not sure how useful this is with out detailed info. If you’re gonna ask only one question, why not ask how the respondent will vote … but, what do I know? Here’s the toplines … for the frontrunners:

Name/Favorable/Unfavorable/Unfamiliar Busby / 38% / 26% / 20%

Bilbray /23% / 20% / 29%

Kaloogian / 20% / 18% / 40%

Morrow / 19% / 20% / 35%

Roach / 20% / 24% / 32%

Uke / 15% / 22% / 39%

If you buy these numbers, Eric Roach’s advertising has definitely impacted the race, with a higher familiarity than Morrow and Kaloogian, but it has also increased his negatives.

Weekend Events … One of the premier annual political functions in San Diego County, certainly the best put together for/by an East County politico, isn’t even a dinner… Read More

Just received this from Datamar:

Democrat Busby Tops 18-Candidates List, But Sum Of Next Four Candidates Exceeds Her Total

Bilbray, Kaloogian, Roach Lead Republican Candidates

San Diego – A poll was released today by Datamar Inc. regarding candidates from all political parties in the 50th Congressional Special Election to be held April 11th. This survey questioned 50th Congressional District high-propensity registered voters — voters who voted in the 2004 Presidential primary and general elections and in the 2002 gubernatorial primary and general elections.Unlike the survey I noted this morning (see post below), Datamar does ask the obvious question, "If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?":

Busby 36%

Bilbray 11.7%

Roach 11.2%

Kaloogian 10.6%

Orren 5%

Morrow 4.8%

Uke 3%

I’ll stop at that point in the list. See the entire survey results here.… Read More

It usually only happens once or twice every election cycle–the piece of campaign mail that is worthy of my sample mail file (because I might just use it myself in a future campaign, just changing the names and photos).

A cross between a timeshare sales brochure and what I imagine Don Lapre would use to promote his latest infomercial product, it’s a damn good piece of direct mail.

Dave Gilliard (GBW&A) is running Diane Harkey’s campaign for the 35th Senate District against Assemblyman Tom Harman. Giliard’s "Harman Method" highlights how Harman has ‘gotten rich’ off being a legislator. My research firm is doing Harkey’s polling.

Some people might think the piece is too cute, but it is well done and is even designed to be at first glance, a pro-Harman piece. Which is all the better because once you start reading it, it’s clearly not.… Read More

Yesterday I wrote about Steve Schmidt, who is now closing in on two months as the campaign manager for Governor Schwarzenegger’s re-election. There was a story in the Capitol Weekly that was focused on Schmidt’s first three paychecks, which were pretty large. As I said in my piece, Schmidt not only got a hiring bonus (remember, he relocated his family to California from a pretty sweet-gig in the Administration in D.C.) but also may be the best investment that the campaign makes for the discipline and organizational skills he will bring to the campaign. This will pay off the most dividends if Schmidt can introduce some ‘consulting reform’ to the statewide campaign. A look back at traditional statewide campaigns and ballot measure efforts, most definately including the Governor’s past campaigns in both regards, show that a small group of consultants walk away with… Read More